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View Poll Results: $2.10 or $3.10 first?
$2.10 36 60.00%
$3.10 24 40.00%
Voters: 60. You may not vote on this poll

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  #11  
Old February 24th, 2012, 02:48 PM
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I think either one is possible and neither is outrageous. Voted for 3.10 only because with storage space available I'm not sure what can drive it to $2.10 first. The "ratchet" issue I guess could, but seems to not be the problem some thought.

A 2.10 price would certainly help solve the glut sooner rather than later. But, as long as we are running 4/day tight to last year it may not be necessary, depending on weather.
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  #12  
Old February 24th, 2012, 02:58 PM
Gastrader Gastrader is offline
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April was $ 2.80 at one point. I can't see any trader covering their shorts above that price and losing money in this environment unless something drastic happens. I do see it going to $ 2.50, then $ 2.70 in one day of short covering, then back down, rinse and repeat.
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  #13  
Old February 25th, 2012, 07:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Gastrader View Post
April was $ 2.80 at one point. I can't see any trader covering their shorts above that price and losing money in this environment unless something drastic happens. I do see it going to $ 2.50, then $ 2.70 in one day of short covering, then back down, rinse and repeat.
Yes, we very well could be range-bound for awhile. That has been the trend over the past 3-4 weeks. However, the high OI says some serious volatility may ensue.
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  #14  
Old February 25th, 2012, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Onyxcap View Post
Also, open interests for Apr and May are 224k and 247k respectively and most of these are shorts, therefore we are likely to see $3.10 first then $2.10
How do you know most of the OI in Apr and May are short? Are you going off options OI? Or from CFTC?
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  #15  
Old February 25th, 2012, 08:12 PM
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Because of these production cuts NG has seen a little buoyancy lately. We will see what happens Monday but my guess is that we head higher before we go lower.
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  #16  
Old February 25th, 2012, 08:55 PM
sidhuvet sidhuvet is offline
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I think the poll should have been 2.25 or 3.25 first? Due to recent support between 2.25-2.40, it made easy to pick 3.10.

Where did pollster picked up the 2.10 and 3.10? Are they some technical levels?
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  #17  
Old February 26th, 2012, 07:17 AM
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I agree, $2.1 is a no go. $3.1 is far more likely to a) happen B)happen first
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  #18  
Old February 26th, 2012, 07:34 AM
Gastrader Gastrader is offline
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Originally Posted by swingtrader View Post
I agree, $2.1 is a no go. $3.1 is far more likely to a) happen B)happen first
And the reasoning for this is ? Is it the biggest glut in NG history at the very end of heating season, or is it the 8-14 Wx showing red to almost purple above average temps in March. that prompts you to believe its going to rally 15% ?. I remember last year when analysts would blog daily "3.80 is a major resistance, buyers jump in every time it reaches this as it's so darn cheap" LOL
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  #19  
Old February 26th, 2012, 07:52 AM
joeschmoe joeschmoe is offline
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Originally Posted by Gastrader View Post
I remember last year when analysts would blog daily "3.80 is a major resistance, buyers jump in every time it reaches this as it's so darn cheap" LOL
not to be picky but if buyers are jumping in i'd call that support, not resistance. was that a real quote from somewhere?
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  #20  
Old February 26th, 2012, 08:51 AM
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i hope you are correct that we hit 3.1 first and that it occurs in the next 6 weeks because that will be the best shorting opportunity we'll get this year.

other than that, if you do end up right about 3.1, it probably won't be until we roll to the novi contract.


Originally Posted by swingtrader View Post
I agree, $2.1 is a no go. $3.1 is far more likely to a) happen B)happen first
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