Forgot Password Register
Sponsors:
CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange Dow Jones The Dow Corp

View Poll Results: Storage for EIA report date 5/31/12
Below 45 Bcf 1 3.23%
45 to 50 Bcf 6 19.35%
50 to 55 Bcf 11 35.48%
55 to 60 Bcf 11 35.48%
Above 60 Bcf 2 6.45%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old June 4th, 2012, 01:26 PM
ben2008's Avatar
ben2008 ben2008 is online now
Administrator
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 2,379
ben2008 is on a distinguished road
Default Storage for EIA report date 6/7/12

this weeks storage poll is for week ending 6/1 and reported by EIA on 6/7.


observations:
warmer temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. boosted total degree demand above both last yr and avg last week.
the increased weather driven demand supported increased supply from both domestic production and canadian imports.
some of the increase in supply figures last week may be attributable to line pack reduction coming off such a low demand period in the weeks prior.
from pipe scrape data it appears that salt storage was again working to increase inventory capacity by pushing some supply to market during the higher demand week.
storage continues trend of cutting into the surplus with this weeks injection expectation of less than half of normal.





storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 70 (55cdd 15hdd)
previous week: 46 (32cdd 14hdd)
same week last yr: 76 (53cdd 23hdd)
avg: 57 (32cdd 25hdd)
next wk fcst: 50 (38cdd 12hdd)
* source: NOAA


storage:
same week last yr: +81
5 yr avg: +99
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

my current estimate is +46 bcf
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old June 4th, 2012, 01:33 PM
sparrow sparrow is online now
New Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4
sparrow is on a distinguished road
Default

Ben, You need to change the Thread title to reflect the proper date.

A rather bullish number, it would seem.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old June 4th, 2012, 01:37 PM
kelkharadly kelkharadly is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 399
kelkharadly is on a distinguished road
Default

Tot 53

e 33
w 9
p 11
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old June 4th, 2012, 01:38 PM
wolfoptiontrading wolfoptiontrading is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 4,100
wolfoptiontrading is on a distinguished road
Default

I thought my preliminary estimate was high and was looking to revise down but left it unchanged for now. I think I am in left field huffing gas again.

Total 58
E: 36
P: 7
W: 15
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old June 4th, 2012, 01:52 PM
ben2008's Avatar
ben2008 ben2008 is online now
Administrator
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 2,379
ben2008 is on a distinguished road
Default

sorry guys. i mislabeled the poll "report date 5/31" when it should be titled 6/7.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old June 4th, 2012, 02:00 PM
wolfoptiontrading wolfoptiontrading is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 4,100
wolfoptiontrading is on a distinguished road
Default

Originally Posted by ben2008 View Post
sorry guys. i mislabeled the poll "report date 5/31" when it should be titled 6/7.
Ben

Its ok I think we all knew what you were referring too

I am more concerned with my preliminary 58 number (with 58 I was going with the higher end of the regional ranges) but was waiting for more info before revising lower.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old June 4th, 2012, 03:04 PM
researcher researcher is offline
Contributing Member
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 83
researcher is on a distinguished road
Default

If 46 prints, that will be bullish as hell.
E 34
W 11
P 11
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old June 4th, 2012, 05:47 PM
bluedemon bluedemon is online now
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 595
bluedemon is on a distinguished road
Default

I'm bullish in my estimate, but couldn't get to 46!

E 32
W 9
P 10
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old June 4th, 2012, 07:13 PM
kelkharadly kelkharadly is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 399
kelkharadly is on a distinguished road
Default

the recent weather to storage correlation (last few reports) would suggest a print of near 40 BCFs,, as per regression against noaa #s
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old June 4th, 2012, 07:16 PM
wolfoptiontrading wolfoptiontrading is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 4,100
wolfoptiontrading is on a distinguished road
Default

Originally Posted by kelkharadly View Post
the recent weather to storage correlation (last few reports) would suggest a print of near 40 BCFs,, as per regression against noaa #s
Kel,

The only problem with the NOAA numbers is how the weekly total got made up (think "time" as we have discussed before).
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 07:19 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.4 Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.