[ben2008]

this weeks storage poll is for week ending 6/1 and reported by EIA on 6/7.


observations:
warmer temperatures across much of the eastern U.S. boosted total degree demand above both last yr and avg last week.
the increased weather driven demand supported increased supply from both domestic production and canadian imports.
some of the increase in supply figures last week may be attributable to line pack reduction coming off such a low demand period in the weeks prior.
from pipe scrape data it appears that salt storage was again working to increase inventory capacity by pushing some supply to market during the higher demand week.
storage continues trend of cutting into the surplus with this weeks injection expectation of less than half of normal.





storage week total population weighted degree demand (HDD + CDD) --
last week: 70 (55cdd 15hdd)
previous week: 46 (32cdd 14hdd)
same week last yr: 76 (53cdd 23hdd)
avg: 57 (32cdd 25hdd)
next wk fcst: 50 (38cdd 12hdd)
* source: NOAA


storage:
same week last yr: +81
5 yr avg: +99
*note: avg and last year storage figures are calculated using this historical data-set provided by eia: http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngsstats.xls

my current estimate is +46 bcf

[sparrow]

Ben, You need to change the Thread title to reflect the proper date.

A rather bullish number, it would seem.

[kelkharadly]

Tot 53

e 33
w 9
p 11

[wolfoptiontrading]

I thought my preliminary estimate was high and was looking to revise down but left it unchanged for now. I think I am in left field huffing gas again.

Total 58
E: 36
P: 7
W: 15

[ben2008]

sorry guys. i mislabeled the poll "report date 5/31" when it should be titled 6/7.

[wolfoptiontrading]

Originally Posted by ben2008 sorry guys. i mislabeled the poll "report date 5/31" when it should be titled 6/7.

Ben

Its ok I think we all knew what you were referring too

I am more concerned with my preliminary 58 number (with 58 I was going with the higher end of the regional ranges) but was waiting for more info before revising lower.

[researcher]

If 46 prints, that will be bullish as hell.
E 34
W 11
P 11

[bluedemon]

I'm bullish in my estimate, but couldn't get to 46!

E 32
W 9
P 10

[kelkharadly]

the recent weather to storage correlation (last few reports) would suggest a print of near 40 BCFs,, as per regression against noaa #s

[wolfoptiontrading]

Originally Posted by kelkharadly the recent weather to storage correlation (last few reports) would suggest a print of near 40 BCFs,, as per regression against noaa #s

Kel,

The only problem with the NOAA numbers is how the weekly total got made up (think "time" as we have discussed before).