[swingtrader]

Another thread for ETF based trade chat, ideas, and whatever!

[mkat]

Is there contango on silver? anyone...

[KJF]

Originally Posted by mkat Is there contango on silver? anyone...

Hi mkat...
Feb/33.755
Mar/33.75
Apr/33.805

[wolfoptiontrading]

Originally Posted by mkat Is there contango on silver? anyone...

MKAT

If there is it usually isn't that much since silver can be relatively cheaply stored.

Don't assume the ETF's are futures constrained as they may hold physical to offset the shares and thus not impacted by contango at all.

[nofo]

I beleive that both silv and gold roll much less frequently... 3 month rollover, but don't quote me on that, it is all clear on the horizons site...

[nofo]

Greece failed to provide the info required for the Wed meeting ECB etc. which is cancelled now, more stalling, this is not going away, plus another what? 7 downgrades? how does the rating agency downgrade Portugal below an already existing "junk" status, "super junk"? And UK being put on a warning to boot. Look for the euro to continue to tank and commodities fall.

Sold HGD
Bot HGU
Sold HOU
Bot HOD
BOT K Kinross
Bot UUU
BOT more HND back after selling some yesterday

[mkat]

Should have bought some of the hzd, funny how hbu is playing on the positive side. I think I will wait just before the Euro probs are resolved.
Thanks for responses and it is accurate of being contango but not much as of now and it looks like every commodity has contango and it all depends on volatility for how much.

[nofo]

Is this actually real, I dont know if it is a joke spoof or real...

Debt clock... http://usdebtclock.org/

[Redfox]

Originally Posted by nofo Is this actually real, I dont know if it is a joke spoof or real... Debt clock... http://usdebtclock.org/

Very real. It was put together to demonstrate that if the status quo is maintained, the US is marching towards inevitable bankruptcy. A few numbers really stand out. 56 trillion total debt or 180K per person, annual debt in excess of GDP... The model is broken and the tough decisions aren't being made. Sounds a lot like the old GM and Chrysler with their broken business models...

[nofo]

Thanks Red, just wondering, can you chime up in terms of what you think will happen on a greek default, this is assuming that yes they get their money but it only secures an eventual "managed default"... I am trying to put the equation together... I would assume that a couple or bunch of banks would be taken out due to exposure and then the contagion effect would start to run... ie to first Portugal going under the microscope.

My thought is that would drive the euro into the toilet which may lead to defalation, of oil gold and silver and of course an equity run down... my main concern is trying to figure how gold silver and oil will be reacting on a default, assuming it takes the euro down at the same time. Looking at 08, gold dropped heavily then gained back, I dont see where holding gold while it colapses then gains back is a real winning position. I want to be short but cant figure where the minimal risk is, could be to short the three exchanges hxd hsd hqd or short equities in general say HGD or just short the commodities if deflation is likely. I ask people what they think would happen when a country defaults, nobody seems to have a clue. My thinking that gold would go down is based on the masses running from gold to US treasuries, we have seen this in the past two months, that is what has taken gold from $1900 to where it is now (along with profit taking) to cover other losing positions...

Anybody care to take a shot at this question?