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tolleris
November 18th, 2009, 08:39 PM
FINAL WINTER 2009-10 FORECAST ...
this is substantially different from the Mid OCT forecast because back then the El Nino had not yet exploded in intensity and power

http://www.wxrisk.com/?p=160

weatherd
November 19th, 2009, 02:02 PM
Thanks for sharing this with us Dave.
It looks like you are believer in a typical El Nino pattern through the first 1/2 of winter followed by a weakening El Nino pattern for the second 1/2 of the winter.

Some things that may off set the typical El Nino pattern for the 1/2 half of winter is the anomalous cold sea temps up in the Northern Pacific (just below Alaska). I have to imagine this will drive much more sever arctic temperature outbreaks if the jet dips lower.
Also, the above average snow coverage at this time along with high soil moisture content could further counteract a typical El Nino pattern.

For the second 1/2 of winter you forecast relys on the premise that El Nino dissipates. I know that traditionally El Nino breaks down after the first of the year, but everything is pointing to further intensifying El Nino through December. This would place El Nino in a very moderate event. Given typical fading of past El Ninos it typically takes 4 or more months to reverse those warmer than normal sea surface temps.
If this is the case we shouldn't see weak El Nino until well into the Spring period.
I'm wondering if a El Nino pattern sets in if it may be in place for the entire winter?

If so this would be even more bearish for energy demand this winter.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on this.
Thanks.

vferg
November 21st, 2009, 03:42 PM
How much better are these long term forecasts over climatology?
Is there really any way of measuring accuracy of these types of seasonal forecasts?

passgas
November 21st, 2009, 04:10 PM
Stratospheric Warming Beginning – if it persists, suggests cold coming end of November and December US and Europe:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SSWNov25.pdf

tolleris
November 23rd, 2009, 11:47 AM
WRONG

The argument that stratospheric warming -S.W. --causes the pattern to turn colder over the central and eastern US is essentially crap.

You see what stratospheric warming does is that it causes blocking patterns to occur in the Northern Hemisphere.

However what happens is that the meteorologists who are always banging the gong that is going to turn really cold and stormy--- such as JB over at AccuWeather-- will hike to stratospheric warming to support their overdone forecasts.

The problem is that stratospheric warming supports blocking occurring somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere but it just as easily could occur over Europe or Central Asia or even in Siberia. There Is no guarantee that the blocking patterns going to occur in such a way that will force the patter to turn colder over the central and eastern US.

It's called hype.




Stratospheric Warming Beginning if it persists, suggests cold coming end of November and December US and Europe:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SSWNov25.pdf