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Energy Prices and Analysis

May 17, 2012

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending									Weekly EIA		Baseline Neutral
Week Ending	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Total	Model	Actual	Baseline Neutral
02/03/12	-13.0	-13.2	-15.5	-12.7	-7.2	-7.0	-9.5	-78.0	-79	-78	-69
02/10/12	-15.5	-13.4	-15.4	-15.3	-19.2	-25.0	-23.2	-127.0	-115	-127	-113
02/17/12	-25.8	-29.2	-28.8	-25.3	-20.7	-17.5	-18.8	-166.0	-173	-166	-141
02/24/12	-12.9	-12.1	-15.8	-14.3	-10.5	-8.3	-8.1	-82.0	-91	-82	-65
03/02/12	-11.4	-14.4	-13.6	-12.4	-9.1	-11.3	-7.7	-80.0	-88	-80	-66
03/09/12	-7.6	-7.4	-12.6	-13.6	-9.1	-3.1	-10.5	-64.0	-64	-64	-35
03/16/12	-5.7	0.3	3.0	4.6	-0.9	4.8	4.8	11.0	13	11	33
03/23/12	5.4	7.8	7.7	6.4	7.4	7.2	8.2	50.0	57	50	84
03/30/12	16.0	17.7	8.8	-6.7	-1.0	4.7	2.4	42.0	36	42	47
04/06/12	0.7	0.1	6.1	5.5	3.2	1.6	-1.2	16.0	13	6	53
04/13/12	5.0	7.3	6.6	1.8	1.1	-0.7	1.8	23.0	24	23	36
04/20/12	5.1	11.1	10.1	5.8	4.8	5.3	4.7	47.0	37	47	89
04/27/12	3.9	7.3	4.9	4.1	3.3	2.4	2.2	28.0	19	28	62
05/04/12	1.5	2.5	3.1	0.3	6.4	8.5	7.6	30.0	25	30	74
05/11/12	9.6	8.0	8.6	9.0	5.7	0.9	6.8	48.7	49	n/a	99
05/18/12	8.9	9.0	8.2	6.6	5.2	1.0	0.9	39.9	40	n/a	n/a
	* US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
	* Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
	* Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
	* Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
	* Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.

Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days

	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri
04/13/12	1.7	4.7	6.5	4.4	1.2	0.7	2.5
04/20/12	5.5	7.9	8.3	7.4	7.0	7.9	8.4
04/27/12	7.3	4.8	2.9	3.9	6.0	6.5	4.5
05/04/12	2.9	4.1	6.3	7.8	8.0	7.7	8.1
05/11/12	8.3	8.4	9.2	9.8	9.9	9.3	9.4
05/18/12	10.0	10.2	-	-	-	-	-

Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days

	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Jan	-578	-570	-359	-495	-512	-561	-390	-602	-626	-489	-245	-447	-486	-598	-561	-590	-354
Feb	-426	-308	-242	-283	-278	-375	-302	-479	-434	-306	-371	-523	-387	-324	-465	-401	-253
Mar	-307	-125	-197	-219	-46	-249	-213	-152	-68	-224	-175	-76	-175	-142	-74	-158	73
Apr	52	35	112	103	95	101	98	60	114	141	169	51	114	93	185	105	145
May	215	236	282	277	264	274	218	250	261	238	259	279	247	277	248	236	116
Jun	260	270	224	253	255	252	248	268	263	234	247	243	203	226	196	207	0
Jul	245	235	205	187	238	222	190	215	236	178	157	217	187	208	145	112	0
Aug	255	253	221	222	227	211	203	211	256	183	165	142	220	193	158	159	0
Sep	277	269	256	271	238	270	263	276	272	246	274	248	269	277	248	253	0
Oct	179	135	216	176	197	174	123	176	203	186	140	226	166	136	231	199	0
Nov	-222	-178	-34	36	-197	57	-139	-51	-40	-34	-18	-81	-95	33	-73	-5	0
Dec	-354	-406	-321	-354	-653	-276	-418	-379	-404	-477	-254	-390	-423	-474	-512	-293	0
TOTAL	-404	-154	363	174	-172	100	-119	-207	33	-124	348	-111	-160	-95	-273	-176	-274

Long Term Storage Model


	Deg Days
05/04/12	74.7
05/11/12	69.4
05/18/12	65.4
05/25/12	63.3
06/01/12	62.5
06/08/12	63.0
06/15/12	64.3
06/22/12	66.1
06/29/12	68.0
07/06/12	70.3
07/13/12	72.3
07/20/12	73.7
07/27/12	74.1
08/03/12	73.6
08/10/12	72.6
08/17/12	71.4
08/24/12	69.8
08/31/12	67.4
09/07/12	64.8
09/14/12	62.8
09/21/12	62.4
09/28/12	63.5
10/05/12	66.3
10/12/12	70.0
10/19/12	77.0
10/26/12	84.6
11/02/12	94.8
11/09/12	106.4
11/16/12	119.1
11/23/12	132.3
11/30/12	143.4
12/07/12	156.5
12/14/12	168.5


Inventory
2606
2655
2716
2781
2851
2911
2967
3024
3070
3131
3172
3204
3226
3252
3277
3307
3338
3375
3433
3482
3527
3572
3610
3651
3668
3677
3670
3634
3575
3512
3412
3277
3112


Change
30
49
62
64
71
60
57
56
46
61
41
32
22
26
25
30
31
36
58
49
45
45
38
40
18
9
-7
-36
-59
-63
-100
-134
-165

* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations

* storage in BCF

Canadian Storage Sampling

	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	TOTAL
11/18/11	1.5	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.1	0.4	0.5	8.0
11/25/11	-0.2	-0.2	-0.4	-0.2	0.2	0.9	1.0	1.1
12/02/11	0.9	0.9	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.3	-0.5	4.2
12/09/11	-0.4	-0.6	-0.9	-0.9	-0.9	-1.1	-2.0	-6.7
12/16/11	-1.2	-1.2	-1.1	-1.7	-1.8	-1.3	-1.5	-9.8
12/23/11	-0.9	-0.5	-0.5	-0.4	0.3	-0.7	-1.0	-3.7
12/30/11	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.7	-1.0	-0.8	-2.8
01/06/12	-0.7	-0.9	-1.2	-1.3	-1.3	-0.6	0.0	-6.1
01/13/12	-0.2	-0.4	-0.6	-1.1	-1.3	-1.6	-1.6	-6.7
01/20/12	-1.1	-1.6	-3.0	-4.5	-6.5	-6.5	-5.1	-28.4
01/27/12	-3.4	-3.0	-2.4	-1.7	-1.3	-1.3	-1.2	-14.2
02/03/12	-0.1	-1.1	-0.7	-1.6	-1.1	-0.9	-0.9	-6.3
02/10/12	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6	-0.7	-1.1	-1.7	-1.5	-7.0
02/17/12	-2.1	-2.5	-2.1	-1.4	-1.5	-1.1	-0.8	-11.5
02/24/12	-1.0	-1.1	-1.2	-1.1	-1.1	-0.8	-1.3	-7.4
03/02/12	-1.1	-1.6	-1.6	-3.0	-2.2	-2.6	-1.9	-14.1
03/09/12	-1.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.2	-1.8	-0.9	-0.6	-8.1
03/16/12	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1	0.2	-2.1
03/23/12	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.3	0.9
03/30/12	0.0	0.3	0.4	0.5	1.0	0.4	0.6	3.1
04/06/12	0.6	0.8	3.9	-1.6	1.4	0.8	0.6	6.6
04/13/12	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.6	4.2
04/20/12	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	0.2	1.9
04/27/12	1.6	1.3	1.3	1.1	1.3	1.2	1.2	9.0
05/04/12	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.9	1.5	1.3	0.7	9.3
05/11/12	0.9	1.4	1.6	1.4	1.8	1.4	1.4	9.9
05/18/12	0.9	1.5	0.9	-	-	-	-	3.3
	* BCF injection/day

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Energy Prices and Analysis

May 17, 2012

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