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Energy Prices and Analysis

Sep 01, 2014

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
05/16/1417.517.817.314.812.713.312.7106.010610690
05/23/1414.617.818.116.716.616.114.2114.0113114101
05/30/1416.917.919.517.815.515.615.9119.0114119110
06/06/1416.217.216.414.614.013.714.9107.011710793
06/13/1416.117.716.215.615.415.816.3113.011211393
06/20/1417.118.017.915.313.913.414.4110.011611083
06/27/1415.016.116.614.913.011.512.8100.010510083
07/04/1414.915.415.012.510.511.113.693.0929378
07/11/1418.718.116.113.012.813.814.6107.010210785
07/18/1413.313.913.211.411.812.613.890.0909076
07/25/1415.316.314.412.09.99.410.888.0938866
08/01/1411.212.112.011.711.512.111.482.0828264
08/08/1411.312.412.410.49.811.210.578.0857865
08/15/1412.014.114.011.112.312.312.288.0918867
08/22/1413.413.913.411.09.310.210.781.982n/a59
08/29/1412.014.613.310.37.37.41.766.566n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
07/25/149.09.410.110.811.010.410.0
08/01/1410.511.110.79.79.49.69.6
08/08/149.49.29.610.010.310.310.2
08/15/1410.310.410.610.19.49.19.1
08/22/149.510.010.110.110.510.811.0
08/29/1411.111.011.0----
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Jan-450-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-562-592
Jan-355-445-634-404-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387
Feb-324-466-402-254-383-473-111-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224
Mar-175-76-175-142-75-15872-239-2676552351121039510198
Apr60114141169511149318410514589111263215236282277
May264274218250261238259279247277248236276253264265260
Jun270224253255252248268263234247243203226199209218229
Jun244220245235205187238222190215236178157217187208150
Jul118122184219214255253221222227211203211256183165142
Aug220193163164198216177252277269256271238270263276272
Sep2462742482692772492542552480213179135216176197174
Oct1231762031861402261661362311991841860-188-222-178-34
Nov36-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-73-5-94-1340-493
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-513-294-252
TOTAL-77-571-38995-485-34415196-3-12650236859-31-37886-380
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
08/15/1472.0
08/22/1470.6
08/29/1468.6
09/05/1465.8
09/12/1463.6
09/19/1462.3
09/26/1462.9
10/03/1464.9
10/10/1468.0
10/17/1473.9
10/24/1481.2
10/31/1490.2
11/07/14101.4
11/14/14113.3
11/21/14126.7
11/28/14138.4
12/05/14151.0
12/12/14163.2
12/19/14176.5
12/26/14186.1
01/02/15190.4
01/09/15191.9
01/16/15194.8
01/23/15199.7
01/30/15197.9
02/06/15191.9
02/13/15181.0
02/20/15171.1
02/27/15163.2
03/06/15157.5
03/13/15149.8
03/20/15137.7
03/27/15123.6
Inventory
2555
2637
2723
2830
2927
3025
3124
3220
3311
3398
3466
3523
3551
3556
3535
3508
3441
3335
3214
3095
2970
2819
2655
2490
2322
2165
2031
1925
1834
1756
1691
1654
1648
Change
88
82
86
106
97
99
99
96
91
87
68
56
29
4
-20
-27
-67
-106
-121
-119
-124
-151
-165
-165
-168
-157
-134
-106
-92
-77
-65
-38
-6
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
02/28/14-3.8-4.3-4.6-4.9-4.6-4.0-4.5-30.7
03/07/14-4.8-4.8-4.7-4.5-4.3-4.4-4.2-31.7
03/14/14-3.3-2.9-2.4-1.5-1.7-1.9-1.8-15.5
03/21/14-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.6-2.7-11.3
03/28/14-2.7-3.0-2.8-2.7-2.7-2.6-1.8-18.3
04/04/14-1.6-1.2-1.1-1.4-0.3-0.20.2-5.7
04/11/14-0.10.61.11.41.71.60.16.3
04/18/141.61.21.40.60.80.40.76.7
04/25/141.41.41.51.91.51.30.69.6
05/02/141.01.31.41.40.90.91.48.4
05/09/141.71.61.60.91.01.11.29.1
05/16/141.01.21.31.01.01.20.77.4
05/23/141.21.72.21.92.21.11.011.3
05/30/141.51.61.71.71.40.81.29.8
06/06/142.02.11.60.70.60.60.78.2
06/13/141.01.11.11.10.70.60.25.8
06/20/140.81.41.81.71.41.01.39.2
06/27/141.72.01.91.61.71.82.012.7
07/04/142.32.42.32.52.21.72.015.5
07/11/142.12.22.42.41.71.01.212.9
07/18/141.51.71.71.21.11.31.810.3
07/25/141.82.02.42.51.92.22.215.0
08/01/142.62.62.52.52.31.82.016.3
08/08/142.62.72.42.32.22.21.715.9
08/15/142.42.62.52.42.11.91.715.7
08/22/142.02.02.12.01.61.82.113.7
08/29/142.12.02.01.3---7.4
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.