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Energy Prices and Analysis

Dec 18, 2014

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
09/05/1414.115.015.212.612.111.911.192.0899265
09/12/1412.114.014.913.612.111.711.490.0879071
09/19/1413.714.214.313.013.113.615.197.0999778
09/26/1417.017.616.015.715.214.915.6112.011211294
10/03/1415.317.815.814.514.413.913.3105.010210591
10/10/1410.012.313.213.715.315.713.894.0949468
10/17/1414.312.614.913.912.312.613.494.0939487
10/24/1414.513.514.612.410.59.112.487.0858760
10/31/1414.415.315.615.011.69.99.391.0859169
11/07/147.24.24.67.96.95.83.540.030406
11/14/140.01.42.22.1-3.6-7.7-11.4-17.0-15-17-49
11/21/14-22.3-19.6-20.8-25.0-26.9-24.2-23.2-162.0-157-162-168
11/28/14-7.21.43.8-2.6-5.6-5.4-6.5-22.0-24-22-50
12/05/14-6.9-2.4-5.1-10.3-8.9-9.0-8.4-51.0-54-51-73
12/12/14-4.1-5.3-6.7-8.8-10.2-13.4-13.8-62.3-62n/a-103
12/19/14-7.5-4.9-4.9-5.9-6.3-8.10.7-36.9-37n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
11/14/1417.916.714.614.517.823.226.9
11/21/1427.526.526.329.130.026.725.3
11/28/1422.917.114.516.820.623.825.5
12/05/1422.918.518.522.122.220.920.4
12/12/1419.120.522.722.322.223.223.0
12/19/1421.419.619.0----
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Jan-450-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-562-591
Jan-355-444-633-404-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387
Feb-324-466-401-253-382-472-111-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224
Mar-175-76-175-142-74-15873-239-2676552351121039510198
Apr60114141169511149318510514589111263215236282277
May264274218250261238259279247277248236275253264265260
Jun270224253255252248268263234247243203226198208216228
Jun244220245235205187238222190215236178157217187208148
Jul115118182218214255253221222227211203211256183165142
Aug220193161161196215215252277269256271238270263276272
Sep246274248269277248254254248247213179135216176197174
Oct123176203186140226166136231199184186221-188-222-178-34
Nov36-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-73-5-93-134-188-493
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-513-293-252
TOTAL-80-573-39291-486-35453196-2121502369280-32-378-102-382
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
12/05/14151.0
12/12/14163.2
12/19/14176.5
12/26/14186.1
01/02/15190.4
01/09/15191.9
01/16/15194.8
01/23/15199.7
01/30/15197.9
02/06/15191.9
02/13/15181.0
02/20/15171.1
02/27/15163.2
03/06/15157.5
03/13/15149.8
03/20/15137.7
03/27/15123.6
04/03/15112.4
04/10/15102.5
04/17/1594.1
04/24/1585.6
05/01/1578.1
05/08/1572.3
05/15/1567.5
05/22/1564.2
05/29/1562.9
06/05/1562.5
06/12/1563.6
06/19/1565.0
06/26/1566.9
07/03/1569.0
07/10/1571.2
07/17/1573.0
Inventory
3359
3297
3181
3068
2950
2804
2645
2486
2324
2173
2045
1944
1858
1786
1727
1695
1695
1725
1770
1827
1907
1999
2100
2212
2331
2460
2576
2693
2802
2913
3021
3133
3226
Change
-51
-62
-115
-113
-118
-145
-159
-159
-162
-151
-129
-101
-86
-71
-59
-32
-1
30
45
57
80
91
101
113
119
129
116
116
110
111
108
112
93
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
06/20/140.81.41.81.71.41.01.39.2
06/27/141.72.01.91.61.71.82.012.7
07/04/142.32.42.32.52.21.72.015.5
07/11/142.12.22.42.41.71.01.212.9
07/18/141.51.71.71.21.11.31.810.3
07/25/141.82.02.42.51.92.22.215.0
08/01/142.62.62.52.52.31.82.016.3
08/08/142.62.72.42.32.22.21.715.9
08/15/142.42.62.52.42.11.91.715.7
08/22/142.02.02.12.01.61.82.113.7
08/29/142.12.02.02.32.12.01.814.3
09/05/142.12.12.22.02.12.01.814.3
09/12/142.12.12.11.4-0.20.80.89.0
09/19/141.01.00.60.20.40.90.34.4
09/26/141.11.31.31.51.81.81.910.8
10/03/141.61.81.81.91.81.51.411.9
10/10/141.51.81.81.71.62.01.612.0
10/17/141.71.81.71.71.51.11.310.7
10/24/141.61.61.52.01.70.91.410.8
10/31/141.71.61.60.80.3-0.6-0.64.9
11/07/14-0.70.00.41.40.10.10.52.0
11/14/140.40.2-0.5-1.5-2.0-2.4-2.8-8.6
11/21/14-2.5-2.3-2.2-2.3-2.4-1.4-1.5-14.7
11/28/14-0.5-0.2-0.2-1.0-1.6-2.1-2.1-7.7
12/05/14-2.6-3.9-3.6-4.3-3.2-3.1-2.5-23.3
12/12/14-1.5-1.6-1.4-1.0-0.9-0.6-0.1-7.2
12/19/14-0.3-1.5-1.4-2.1----5.3
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.