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Energy Prices and Analysis

Sep 16, 2014

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
05/30/1416.917.919.517.815.515.615.9119.0114119109
06/06/1416.217.216.414.614.013.714.9107.011610793
06/13/1416.117.716.215.615.415.816.3113.011211393
06/20/1417.118.017.915.313.913.414.4110.011511083
06/27/1415.016.116.614.913.011.512.8100.010410083
07/04/1414.915.415.012.510.511.113.693.0929378
07/11/1418.718.116.113.012.813.814.6107.010210786
07/18/1413.313.913.211.411.812.613.890.0909077
07/25/1415.316.314.411.99.99.410.888.0928866
08/01/1411.212.112.011.711.512.111.482.0818265
08/08/1411.312.412.410.49.811.210.578.0847865
08/15/1412.014.114.011.112.312.312.288.0908867
08/22/1412.412.912.310.08.49.29.875.0807560
08/29/1411.814.012.910.09.910.210.279.0807956
09/05/1414.015.015.212.612.111.811.392.0889265
09/12/1410.913.214.312.511.110.49.081.481n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
08/08/149.49.29.610.010.310.310.2
08/15/1410.310.410.610.19.49.19.1
08/22/149.510.010.110.110.510.811.0
08/29/1411.111.011.010.910.610.29.9
09/05/1410.110.811.411.611.110.510.7
09/12/1410.39.38.89.29.7--
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Jan-450-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-562-592
Jan-355-444-633-404-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387
Feb-324-466-402-253-383-473-111-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224
Mar-175-76-175-142-75-15873-239-2676552351121039510198
Apr60114141169511149318510514589111263215236282277
May264274218250261238259279247277248236276253264265260
Jun270224253255252248268263234247243203226198208217229
Jun244220245235205187238222190215236178157217187208149
Jul117120183218214255253221222227211203211256183165142
Aug220193162162197216216252277269256271238270263276272
Sep24627424826927724825425424868213179135216176197174
Oct1231762031861402261661362311991841860-188-222-178-34
Nov36-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-73-5-93-1340-493
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-513-294-252
TOTAL-78-572-39193-486-35453196-3-5850236959-32-37886-381
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
08/29/1468.6
09/05/1465.8
09/12/1463.6
09/19/1462.3
09/26/1462.9
10/03/1464.9
10/10/1468.0
10/17/1473.9
10/24/1481.2
10/31/1490.2
11/07/14101.4
11/14/14113.3
11/21/14126.7
11/28/14138.4
12/05/14151.0
12/12/14163.2
12/19/14176.5
12/26/14186.1
01/02/15190.4
01/09/15191.9
01/16/15194.8
01/23/15199.7
01/30/15197.9
02/06/15191.9
02/13/15181.0
02/20/15171.1
02/27/15163.2
03/06/15157.5
03/13/15149.8
03/20/15137.7
03/27/15123.6
04/03/15112.4
04/10/15102.5
Inventory
2709
2801
2898
2996
3095
3191
3281
3367
3434
3490
3518
3521
3500
3471
3404
3297
3176
3056
2932
2781
2615
2450
2282
2124
1990
1883
1791
1714
1648
1610
1604
1628
1667
Change
79
92
97
99
99
96
90
86
67
56
28
4
-22
-28
-68
-106
-122
-119
-124
-151
-165
-165
-169
-157
-135
-106
-92
-77
-65
-38
-6
25
39
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
03/14/14-3.3-2.9-2.4-1.5-1.7-1.9-1.8-15.5
03/21/14-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.6-2.7-11.3
03/28/14-2.7-3.0-2.8-2.7-2.7-2.6-1.8-18.3
04/04/14-1.6-1.2-1.1-1.4-0.3-0.20.2-5.7
04/11/14-0.10.61.11.41.71.60.16.3
04/18/141.61.21.40.60.80.40.76.7
04/25/141.41.41.51.91.51.30.69.6
05/02/141.01.31.41.40.90.91.48.4
05/09/141.71.61.60.91.01.11.29.1
05/16/141.01.21.31.01.01.20.77.4
05/23/141.21.72.21.92.21.11.011.3
05/30/141.51.61.71.71.40.81.29.8
06/06/142.02.11.60.70.60.60.78.2
06/13/141.01.11.11.10.70.60.25.8
06/20/140.81.41.81.71.41.01.39.2
06/27/141.72.01.91.61.71.82.012.7
07/04/142.32.42.32.52.21.72.015.5
07/11/142.12.22.42.41.71.01.212.9
07/18/141.51.71.71.21.11.31.810.3
07/25/141.82.02.42.51.92.22.215.0
08/01/142.62.62.52.52.31.82.016.3
08/08/142.62.72.42.32.22.21.715.9
08/15/142.42.62.52.42.11.91.715.7
08/22/142.02.02.12.01.61.82.113.7
08/29/142.12.02.02.32.12.01.814.3
09/05/142.12.12.22.02.12.01.814.3
09/12/142.12.12.11.4-0.2-0.1-7.4
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.