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Energy Prices and Analysis

Oct 01, 2014

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
06/20/1417.118.017.915.313.913.414.4110.011411083
06/27/1415.016.116.614.913.011.512.8100.010310083
07/04/1414.915.415.012.510.511.113.693.0929378
07/11/1418.718.116.113.012.813.814.6107.010110786
07/18/1413.313.913.211.411.812.613.890.0899076
07/25/1415.316.314.411.99.99.410.888.0908866
08/01/1411.212.112.011.711.512.111.482.0808264
08/08/1411.312.412.410.49.811.210.578.0837865
08/15/1412.014.114.011.112.312.312.288.0898867
08/22/1412.412.912.310.08.49.29.875.0797559
08/29/1411.814.012.910.09.910.210.279.0797955
09/05/1414.015.015.212.612.111.911.192.0869265
09/12/1412.114.014.913.612.111.711.490.0849071
09/19/1413.714.214.313.013.113.615.197.0959778
09/26/1416.016.715.114.713.513.211.6100.7101n/an/a
10/03/148.20.70.70.50.50.50.511.712n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
08/22/149.510.010.110.110.510.811.0
08/29/1411.111.011.010.910.610.29.9
09/05/1410.110.811.411.611.110.510.7
09/12/1410.39.38.89.29.710.110.4
09/19/1410.19.59.39.59.28.78.6
09/26/148.78.78.78.58.0--
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Jan-450-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-561-591
Jan-354-444-632-404-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387
Feb-324-466-401-253-382-472-111-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224
Mar-175-76-175-142-74-15873-238-2666552351121039510198
Apr60114141169511149318510514590111263215236282277
May264274218250261238259279247277248236275253264265260
Jun270224253255252248268263234247243203226197207216228
Jun243220245235205187238222190215236178157217187208147
Jul114117181217214255253221222227211203211256183165142
Aug220193160160195214215252277269256271238270263276272
Sep246274248269277248254254248188213179135216176197174
Oct1231762031861402261661362311991841860-188-222-178-34
Nov36-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-73-5-93-1340-493
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-512-293-252
TOTAL-81-574-39390-486-35452196-26250236959-32-37886-382
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
09/19/1462.3
09/26/1462.9
10/03/1464.9
10/10/1468.0
10/17/1473.9
10/24/1481.2
10/31/1490.2
11/07/14101.4
11/14/14113.3
11/21/14126.7
11/28/14138.4
12/05/14151.0
12/12/14163.2
12/19/14176.5
12/26/14186.1
01/02/15190.4
01/09/15191.9
01/16/15194.8
01/23/15199.7
01/30/15197.9
02/06/15191.9
02/13/15181.0
02/20/15171.1
02/27/15163.2
03/06/15157.5
03/13/15149.8
03/20/15137.7
03/27/15123.6
04/03/15112.4
04/10/15102.5
04/17/1594.1
04/24/1585.6
05/01/1578.1
Inventory
2988
3088
3185
3275
3362
3429
3486
3514
3519
3497
3470
3403
3297
3176
3057
2934
2783
2618
2454
2286
2129
1995
1890
1798
1721
1656
1619
1613
1638
1678
1730
1805
1891
Change
97
100
97
91
87
67
56
29
4
-21
-28
-67
-106
-121
-119
-124
-151
-165
-164
-168
-157
-134
-106
-92
-77
-65
-38
-6
25
40
52
75
86
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
03/28/14-2.7-3.0-2.8-2.7-2.7-2.6-1.8-18.3
04/04/14-1.6-1.2-1.1-1.4-0.3-0.20.2-5.7
04/11/14-0.10.61.11.41.71.60.16.3
04/18/141.61.21.40.60.80.40.76.7
04/25/141.41.41.51.91.51.30.69.6
05/02/141.01.31.41.40.90.91.48.4
05/09/141.71.61.60.91.01.11.29.1
05/16/141.01.21.31.01.01.20.77.4
05/23/141.21.72.21.92.21.11.011.3
05/30/141.51.61.71.71.40.81.29.8
06/06/142.02.11.60.70.60.60.78.2
06/13/141.01.11.11.10.70.60.25.8
06/20/140.81.41.81.71.41.01.39.2
06/27/141.72.01.91.61.71.82.012.7
07/04/142.32.42.32.52.21.72.015.5
07/11/142.12.22.42.41.71.01.212.9
07/18/141.51.71.71.21.11.31.810.3
07/25/141.82.02.42.51.92.22.215.0
08/01/142.62.62.52.52.31.82.016.3
08/08/142.62.72.42.32.22.21.715.9
08/15/142.42.62.52.42.11.91.715.7
08/22/142.02.02.12.01.61.82.113.7
08/29/142.12.02.02.32.12.01.814.3
09/05/142.12.12.22.02.12.01.814.3
09/12/142.12.12.11.4-0.20.80.89.0
09/19/141.01.00.60.20.40.90.34.4
09/26/141.11.31.31.51.80.9-8.0
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.