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Energy Prices and Analysis

Jul 25, 2014

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
04/11/140.61.74.22.73.14.76.924.0332438
04/18/1410.913.012.35.10.71.75.349.0564940
04/25/149.813.415.813.710.08.710.782.0808274
05/02/1410.611.711.211.68.78.911.474.0727461
05/09/1412.913.814.511.514.714.714.997.010710590
05/16/1417.517.817.314.812.713.312.7106.010610690
05/23/1414.617.818.116.716.616.114.2114.0114114101
05/30/1416.917.919.517.815.515.615.9119.0114119110
06/06/1416.217.216.414.614.013.714.9107.011810793
06/13/1416.117.716.215.615.415.816.3113.011311393
06/20/1417.118.017.915.313.913.414.4110.011611083
06/27/1415.016.116.614.913.011.512.8100.010510083
07/04/1414.915.415.012.510.511.113.693.0929378
07/11/1418.718.116.113.012.813.814.6107.010210786
07/18/1413.914.413.611.512.212.814.392.793n/a77
07/25/1416.717.615.312.88.69.03.183.183n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
06/20/148.68.79.510.711.210.39.6
06/27/149.59.49.59.69.79.79.7
07/04/1410.010.410.811.111.210.59.4
07/11/149.19.510.511.210.810.09.7
07/18/1410.210.911.210.49.28.98.9
07/25/149.09.410.1----
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Jan-450-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-563-593
Jan-356-446-635-404-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387
Feb-324-467-403-254-384-474-111-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224
Mar-175-76-175-142-75-15972-240-2686552351121039510198
Apr60114141169511149318410514589110263215236282277
May264274218250261238259279247277249236276254264265260
Jun270224253255252248268263234247243203226200210219230
Jun245220245235205187238222190215236178157217187208153
Jul122126187152214255253221222227211203211256183165142
Aug2201931651662002180252277269256271238270263276272
Sep2462742482692772492542552490213179135216176197174
Oct1231762031861402261661362311991841860-188-222-178-34
Nov36-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-74-6-94-1350-493
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-514-295-253
TOTAL-73-569-38730-484-34237196-3-12750136859-30-37886-377
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
07/11/1471.5
07/18/1473.2
07/25/1474.1
08/01/1473.9
08/08/1473.0
08/15/1472.0
08/22/1470.6
08/29/1468.6
09/05/1465.8
09/12/1463.6
09/19/1462.3
09/26/1462.9
10/03/1464.9
10/10/1468.0
10/17/1473.9
10/24/1481.2
10/31/1490.2
11/07/14101.4
11/14/14113.3
11/21/14126.7
11/28/14138.4
12/05/14151.0
12/12/14163.2
12/19/14176.5
12/26/14186.1
01/02/15190.4
01/09/15191.9
01/16/15194.8
01/23/15199.7
01/30/15197.9
02/06/15191.9
02/13/15181.0
02/20/15171.1
Inventory
2129
2222
2296
2370
2443
2519
2598
2682
2786
2881
2977
3073
3167
3256
3340
3405
3459
3485
3487
3463
3433
3364
3255
3130
3008
2880
2726
2558
2391
2219
2059
1922
1813
Change
107
93
75
74
73
77
78
84
104
94
96
96
94
88
84
65
54
26
2
-23
-30
-70
-109
-125
-122
-128
-154
-168
-168
-172
-160
-137
-109
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
01/24/14-2.3-2.9-2.9-3.3-4.6-5.0-4.8-25.8
01/31/14-3.2-1.8-4.6-5.8-5.9-5.5-5.8-32.5
02/07/14-5.7-5.7-5.7-6.4-6.3-6.9-6.9-43.6
02/14/14-6.8-6.5-6.7-6.7-6.6-6.1-5.0-44.4
02/21/14-5.0-4.5-3.9-4.2-3.4-4.7-4.3-30.0
02/28/14-3.8-4.3-4.6-4.9-4.6-4.0-4.5-30.7
03/07/14-4.8-4.8-4.7-4.5-4.3-4.4-4.2-31.7
03/14/14-3.3-2.9-2.4-1.5-1.7-1.9-1.8-15.5
03/21/14-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.6-2.7-11.3
03/28/14-2.7-3.0-2.8-2.7-2.7-2.6-1.8-18.3
04/04/14-1.6-1.2-1.1-1.4-0.3-0.20.2-5.7
04/11/14-0.10.61.11.41.71.60.16.3
04/18/141.61.21.40.60.80.40.76.7
04/25/141.41.41.51.91.51.30.69.6
05/02/141.01.31.41.40.90.91.48.4
05/09/141.71.61.60.91.01.11.29.1
05/16/141.01.21.31.01.01.20.77.4
05/23/141.21.72.21.92.21.11.011.3
05/30/141.51.61.71.71.40.81.29.8
06/06/142.02.11.60.70.60.60.78.2
06/13/141.01.11.11.10.70.60.25.8
06/20/140.81.41.81.71.41.01.39.2
06/27/141.72.01.91.61.71.82.012.7
07/04/142.32.42.32.52.21.72.015.5
07/11/142.12.22.42.41.71.01.212.9
07/18/141.51.71.71.21.11.31.810.3
07/25/141.82.02.41.5---7.7
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.