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Energy Prices and Analysis

Apr 18, 2014

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
12/27/13-9.1-3.7-8.6-18.0-22.0-18.5-17.1-97.0-102-97-109
01/03/14-16.2-14.0-20.8-26.1-25.5-23.5-31.0-157.0-150-157-169
01/10/14-37.5-33.9-38.9-49.9-48.9-43.2-34.6-287.0-291-287-269
01/17/14-15.3-11.0-12.4-12.0-16.8-19.3-20.2-107.0-108-107-106
01/24/14-30.2-27.6-25.6-31.3-38.5-41.8-43.0-238.0-235-238-227
01/31/14-37.9-35.0-35.4-39.4-42.9-36.7-34.8-262.0-274-262-259
02/07/14-28.7-26.2-30.3-33.5-33.8-36.2-41.2-230.0-223-230-223
02/14/14-37.2-33.7-34.3-38.9-38.8-35.2-32.0-250.0-250-250-238
02/21/14-17.8-18.2-17.3-14.1-10.7-7.9-9.0-95.0-95-95-109
02/28/14-16.8-13.9-17.9-22.7-26.3-26.9-27.4-152.0-140-152-152
03/07/14-28.0-25.3-28.6-32.6-28.8-28.7-23.1-195.0-199-195-189
03/14/14-11.0-7.0-4.3-2.6-2.9-10.4-9.8-48.0-57-48-58
03/21/14-6.1-5.1-12.8-11.5-9.2-6.9-5.3-57.0-57-57-61
03/28/14-4.2-6.8-13.3-14.0-16.5-12.1-7.2-74.0-79-74-82
04/04/14-0.7-1.50.8-0.32.11.42.24.013411
04/11/142.53.66.14.64.84.65.732.032n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
03/07/1429.027.431.333.530.127.625.5
03/14/1421.820.417.714.116.823.522.7
03/21/1417.420.024.923.620.218.117.2
03/28/1417.220.424.425.225.422.617.1
04/04/1415.416.615.914.715.015.015.1
04/11/1415.915.614.512.812.0--
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Jan-450-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-563-594
Jan-357-447-637-404-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387
Feb-324-468-403-255-385-476-111-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224
Mar-175-76-175-142-75-15972-241-2696552351121039510198
Apr6011414116951114931841051458913263215236282277
May2642742182502612382592792472772492362762540265260
Jun270224253255252248268263234247243203226202212220232
Jun0220245235205187238222190215236178157217187208155
Jul1251301900214255253221222227211203211256183165142
Aug2201931671692022200252277269256271238270263276272
Sep2462742482692772492552552500213179135216176197174
Oct1231762031861402261661362311981841860-188-222-178-34
Nov36-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-74-6-95-1350-493
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-515-295-254
TOTAL-315-566-384-120-483-33238195-3-12750127059-29-64286-375
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
03/28/14121.9
04/04/14111.1
04/11/14101.1
04/18/1493.0
04/25/1484.4
05/02/1477.3
05/09/1471.4
05/16/1467.0
05/23/1464.0
05/30/1462.8
06/06/1462.6
06/13/1463.7
06/20/1465.2
06/27/1467.2
07/04/1469.4
07/11/1471.5
07/18/1473.2
07/25/1474.1
08/01/1473.9
08/08/1473.0
08/15/1472.0
08/22/1470.6
08/29/1468.6
09/05/1465.8
09/12/1463.6
09/19/1462.3
09/26/1462.9
10/03/1464.9
10/10/1468.0
10/17/1473.9
10/24/1481.2
10/31/1490.2
11/07/14101.4
Inventory
822
826
845
888
948
1017
1095
1183
1278
1381
1472
1561
1649
1731
1817
1901
1969
2028
2086
2142
2203
2266
2333
2419
2497
2576
2656
2733
2804
2870
2919
2956
2965
Change
-74
4
19
43
60
69
78
88
95
102
92
88
89
82
86
83
68
59
58
57
61
62
68
86
78
79
79
77
71
66
49
37
9
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
10/11/131.50.51.01.00.40.10.24.6
10/18/130.60.40.30.40.20.20.12.2
10/25/130.00.0-0.2-0.1-0.50.0-0.3-1.2
11/01/130.00.30.2-0.1-1.3-0.10.0-1.0
11/08/13-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.6-1.2-0.8-0.8-3.8
11/15/13-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.1-1.4-0.9-0.5-6.7
11/22/13-1.2-1.4-1.9-2.8-3.1-3.5-3.1-17.3
11/29/13-3.8-2.9-2.5-1.1-1.8-1.5-2.2-15.8
12/06/13-2.0-2.0-2.0-2.9-4.3-5.5-6.3-24.8
12/13/13-7.4-7.2-5.7-5.0-5.4-5.0-4.6-40.2
12/20/13-5.3-4.7-4.5-4.1-3.5-4.6-5.3-32.0
12/27/13-5.4-5.4-5.3-5.4-3.6-3.2-3.3-31.6
01/03/14-3.4-4.4-4.5-5.4-5.3-4.6-4.7-32.2
01/10/14-5.1-5.2-6.4-6.7-5.8-5.6-3.9-38.7
01/17/14-2.5-3.2-2.8-3.2-2.9-4.7-5.2-24.5
01/24/14-2.3-2.9-2.9-3.3-4.6-5.0-4.8-25.8
01/31/14-3.2-1.8-4.6-5.8-5.9-5.5-5.8-32.5
02/07/14-5.7-5.7-5.7-6.4-6.3-6.9-6.9-43.6
02/14/14-6.8-6.5-6.7-6.7-6.6-6.1-5.0-44.4
02/21/14-5.0-4.5-3.9-4.2-3.4-4.7-4.3-30.0
02/28/14-3.8-4.3-4.6-4.9-4.6-4.0-4.5-30.7
03/07/14-4.8-4.8-4.7-4.5-4.3-4.4-4.2-31.7
03/14/14-3.3-2.9-2.4-1.5-1.7-1.9-1.8-15.5
03/21/14-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.6-2.7-11.3
03/28/14-2.7-3.0-2.8-2.7-2.7-2.6-1.8-18.3
04/04/14-1.6-1.2-1.1-1.4-0.3-0.20.2-5.7
04/11/14-0.10.61.11.41.70.6-5.3
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.