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Energy Prices and Analysis

Apr 23, 2014

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
01/10/14-37.5-33.9-39.0-50.0-48.9-43.2-34.6-287.0-290-287-270
01/17/14-15.3-11.0-12.4-12.0-16.9-19.2-20.2-107.0-107-107-106
01/24/14-30.2-27.6-25.6-31.3-38.5-41.8-43.0-238.0-234-238-227
01/31/14-37.9-35.0-35.5-39.4-42.8-36.6-34.8-262.0-273-262-260
02/07/14-28.7-26.3-30.3-33.5-33.8-36.2-41.2-230.0-223-230-223
02/14/14-37.2-33.7-34.3-38.9-38.8-35.1-32.0-250.0-250-250-239
02/21/14-17.8-18.2-17.3-14.1-10.7-7.9-9.0-95.0-95-95-109
02/28/14-16.8-13.9-17.9-22.7-26.3-26.9-27.4-152.0-141-152-152
03/07/14-28.0-25.3-28.6-32.5-28.8-28.7-23.1-195.0-199-195-189
03/14/14-11.0-7.0-4.2-2.6-2.9-10.4-9.8-48.0-57-48-58
03/21/14-6.1-5.1-12.8-11.5-9.2-6.9-5.3-57.0-57-57-61
03/28/14-4.2-6.9-13.3-14.0-16.5-12.1-7.1-74.0-80-74-82
04/04/14-0.7-1.50.9-0.32.11.42.24.013411
04/11/140.61.74.22.73.14.76.924.0382438
04/18/1413.015.014.47.42.93.87.564.164n/a40
04/25/149.312.614.912.27.56.65.768.869n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
03/21/1417.420.024.923.620.218.117.2
03/28/1417.220.424.425.225.422.617.1
04/04/1415.416.615.914.715.015.015.1
04/11/1415.915.614.512.812.011.610.0
04/18/148.99.310.814.918.817.514.9
04/25/1412.910.89.7----
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Jan-450-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-563-594
Jan-357-447-637-404-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387
Feb-324-468-403-255-385-476-111-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224
Mar-175-76-175-142-75-15972-241-2696552351121039510198
Apr6011414116951114931841051458962263215236282277
May2642742182502612382592792472772492362762540265260
Jun270224253255252248268263234247243203226202212220232
Jun0220245235205187238222190215236178157217187208155
Jul1261301900214255253221222227211203211256183165142
Aug2201931671692022200252277269256271238270263276272
Sep2462742482692772492552562500213179135216176197174
Oct1231762031861402261661362311981841860-188-222-178-34
Nov36-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-74-6-95-1350-493
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-515-295-254
TOTAL-315-566-384-120-483-33238195-3-12750131959-29-64286-375
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
04/11/14101.1
04/18/1493.0
04/25/1484.4
05/02/1477.3
05/09/1471.4
05/16/1467.0
05/23/1464.0
05/30/1462.8
06/06/1462.6
06/13/1463.7
06/20/1465.2
06/27/1467.2
07/04/1469.4
07/11/1471.5
07/18/1473.2
07/25/1474.1
08/01/1473.9
08/08/1473.0
08/15/1472.0
08/22/1470.6
08/29/1468.6
09/05/1465.8
09/12/1463.6
09/19/1462.3
09/26/1462.9
10/03/1464.9
10/10/1468.0
10/17/1473.9
10/24/1481.2
10/31/1490.2
11/07/14101.4
11/14/14113.3
11/21/14126.7
Inventory
850
914
976
1047
1127
1217
1314
1419
1513
1603
1694
1778
1866
1952
2022
2083
2143
2202
2265
2330
2400
2488
2568
2649
2731
2810
2884
2952
3003
3042
3053
3040
3003
Change
24
64
62
71
80
90
98
104
94
91
91
84
88
85
70
61
60
59
63
65
70
88
80
82
82
79
74
68
51
39
12
-13
-38
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
10/25/130.00.0-0.2-0.1-0.50.0-0.3-1.2
11/01/130.00.30.2-0.1-1.3-0.10.0-1.0
11/08/13-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.6-1.2-0.8-0.8-3.8
11/15/13-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.1-1.4-0.9-0.5-6.7
11/22/13-1.2-1.4-1.9-2.8-3.1-3.5-3.1-17.3
11/29/13-3.8-2.9-2.5-1.1-1.8-1.5-2.2-15.8
12/06/13-2.0-2.0-2.0-2.9-4.3-5.5-6.3-24.8
12/13/13-7.4-7.2-5.7-5.0-5.4-5.0-4.6-40.2
12/20/13-5.3-4.7-4.5-4.1-3.5-4.6-5.3-32.0
12/27/13-5.4-5.4-5.3-5.4-3.6-3.2-3.3-31.6
01/03/14-3.4-4.4-4.5-5.4-5.3-4.6-4.7-32.2
01/10/14-5.1-5.2-6.4-6.7-5.8-5.6-3.9-38.7
01/17/14-2.5-3.2-2.8-3.2-2.9-4.7-5.2-24.5
01/24/14-2.3-2.9-2.9-3.3-4.6-5.0-4.8-25.8
01/31/14-3.2-1.8-4.6-5.8-5.9-5.5-5.8-32.5
02/07/14-5.7-5.7-5.7-6.4-6.3-6.9-6.9-43.6
02/14/14-6.8-6.5-6.7-6.7-6.6-6.1-5.0-44.4
02/21/14-5.0-4.5-3.9-4.2-3.4-4.7-4.3-30.0
02/28/14-3.8-4.3-4.6-4.9-4.6-4.0-4.5-30.7
03/07/14-4.8-4.8-4.7-4.5-4.3-4.4-4.2-31.7
03/14/14-3.3-2.9-2.4-1.5-1.7-1.9-1.8-15.5
03/21/14-1.2-1.2-1.3-1.6-1.7-1.6-2.7-11.3
03/28/14-2.7-3.0-2.8-2.7-2.7-2.6-1.8-18.3
04/04/14-1.6-1.2-1.1-1.4-0.3-0.20.2-5.7
04/11/14-0.10.61.11.41.71.60.16.3
04/18/141.61.21.40.60.80.40.76.7
04/25/141.41.41.51.0---5.2
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.