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Energy Prices and Analysis

Oct 21, 2014

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US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
07/11/1418.718.116.113.012.813.814.6107.010310786
07/18/1413.313.913.211.411.812.613.890.0909077
07/25/1415.316.314.411.99.99.410.888.0918867
08/01/1411.212.112.011.711.512.111.482.0818265
08/08/1411.312.412.410.49.811.210.578.0837866
08/15/1412.014.114.011.112.312.312.288.0898868
08/22/1412.412.912.310.08.49.29.875.0787560
08/29/1411.814.012.910.09.910.110.279.0797956
09/05/1414.115.015.212.612.111.911.192.0889266
09/12/1412.114.014.913.612.111.811.490.0869071
09/19/1413.714.214.313.013.113.615.197.0979779
09/26/1417.017.616.015.715.214.915.6112.010911295
10/03/1415.217.715.714.414.313.813.9105.010110592
10/10/1411.114.114.915.413.113.611.794.0859469
10/17/149.611.914.513.511.912.213.086.587n/a88
10/24/1412.711.110.110.14.84.84.257.858n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
09/19/1410.19.59.39.59.28.78.6
09/26/148.78.78.78.58.08.08.2
10/03/148.38.38.48.88.99.09.5
10/10/1410.812.010.89.29.19.710.6
10/17/1411.111.19.88.48.58.68.4
10/24/149.6------
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Jan-450-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-562-591
Jan-355-444-633-404-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387
Feb-324-466-401-253-383-473-111-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224
Mar-175-76-175-142-74-15873-239-2676552351121039510198
Apr60114141169511149318510514589111263215236282277
May264274218250261238259279247277248236276253264265260
Jun270224253255252248268263234247243203226198208217228
Jun244220245235205187238222190215236178157217187208149
Jul116119183218214255253221222227211203211256183165142
Aug220193161162196215216252277269256271238270263276272
Sep246274248269277248254254248247213179135216176197174
Oct123176203186140226166136231199184186141-188-222-178-34
Nov36-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-73-5-93-1340-493
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-513-294-252
TOTAL-79-573-39292-486-35453196-3121502369200-32-37886-381
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
10/10/1468.0
10/17/1473.9
10/24/1481.2
10/31/1490.2
11/07/14101.4
11/14/14113.3
11/21/14126.7
11/28/14138.4
12/05/14151.0
12/12/14163.2
12/19/14176.5
12/26/14186.1
01/02/15190.4
01/09/15191.9
01/16/15194.8
01/23/15199.7
01/30/15197.9
02/06/15191.9
02/13/15181.0
02/20/15171.1
02/27/15163.2
03/06/15157.5
03/13/15149.8
03/20/15137.7
03/27/15123.6
04/03/15112.4
04/10/15102.5
04/17/1594.1
04/24/1585.6
05/01/1578.1
05/08/1572.3
05/15/1567.5
05/22/1564.2
Inventory
3299
3386
3452
3507
3534
3537
3513
3484
3415
3306
3183
3062
2935
2782
2614
2447
2276
2117
1981
1872
1778
1699
1632
1593
1585
1609
1647
1698
1771
1856
1951
2058
2171
Change
94
87
66
55
27
3
-23
-30
-69
-108
-123
-121
-126
-154
-168
-167
-171
-159
-137
-108
-94
-79
-67
-40
-8
24
38
51
73
85
95
106
113
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
04/25/141.41.41.51.91.51.30.69.6
05/02/141.01.31.41.40.90.91.48.4
05/09/141.71.61.60.91.01.11.29.1
05/16/141.01.21.31.01.01.20.77.4
05/23/141.21.72.21.92.21.11.011.3
05/30/141.51.61.71.71.40.81.29.8
06/06/142.02.11.60.70.60.60.78.2
06/13/141.01.11.11.10.70.60.25.8
06/20/140.81.41.81.71.41.01.39.2
06/27/141.72.01.91.61.71.82.012.7
07/04/142.32.42.32.52.21.72.015.5
07/11/142.12.22.42.41.71.01.212.9
07/18/141.51.71.71.21.11.31.810.3
07/25/141.82.02.42.51.92.22.215.0
08/01/142.62.62.52.52.31.82.016.3
08/08/142.62.72.42.32.22.21.715.9
08/15/142.42.62.52.42.11.91.715.7
08/22/142.02.02.12.01.61.82.113.7
08/29/142.12.02.02.32.12.01.814.3
09/05/142.12.12.22.02.12.01.814.3
09/12/142.12.12.11.4-0.20.80.89.0
09/19/141.01.00.60.20.40.90.34.4
09/26/141.11.31.31.51.81.81.910.8
10/03/141.61.81.81.91.81.51.411.9
10/10/141.51.81.81.71.62.01.612.0
10/17/141.71.81.71.71.51.11.310.7
10/24/141.60.7-----2.3
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.