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Energy Prices and Analysis

Feb 22, 2012

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Energy > Natural Gas > Supply > Storage

US Gas Flow Model
Week Ending        Weekly EIABaseline Neutral
SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTotalModelActual
11/11/110.41.83.53.43.40.9-1.512.01812-6
11/18/111.54.44.53.72.3-2.2-5.19.01391
11/25/11-2.7-0.2-0.4-0.8-0.20.42.9-1.05-1-2
12/02/114.83.70.3-3.3-5.5-8.7-11.3-20.0-19-20-31
12/09/11-11.4-9.3-9.3-12.4-15.8-21.0-22.7-102.0-101-102-110
12/16/11-15.2-17.4-17.2-16.1-13.2-9.8-11.2-100.0-100-100-113
12/23/11-13.5-13.7-11.8-12.5-10.8-8.6-10.1-81.0-85-81-90
12/30/11-11.1-9.9-8.7-10.5-12.0-12.9-10.9-76.0-74-76-82
01/06/12-6.8-4.3-10.0-20.9-19.0-19.9-14.0-95.0-102-95-105
01/13/12-8.7-7.0-10.2-12.7-13.4-14.7-20.4-87.0-85-87-97
01/20/12-30.0-27.1-24.3-22.6-24.8-30.9-32.3-192.0-192-192-183
01/27/12-25.9-21.5-15.4-17.0-19.3-17.2-15.7-132.0-127-132-110
02/03/12-13.1-13.3-15.3-12.6-7.4-6.9-9.5-78.0-80-78-69
02/10/12-15.8-13.7-15.5-15.3-19.2-24.7-22.7-127.0-115-127-112
02/17/12-27.1-30.1-30.0-26.7-22.3-18.8-20.0-174.9-175n/a-141
02/24/12-15.5-14.9-13.8-12.7-3.30.90.8-58.4-58n/an/a
 * US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9:00 AM EST
 * Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments removed.
 * Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. (Also called the "2007 Model")
 * Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
 * Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report (Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
Daily Injection-Withdrawal Days
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFri
01/20/12-18.9-20.3-17.4-11.7-13.2-18.4-19.0
01/27/12-17.6-15.7-10.7-7.2-7.7-7.2-5.6
02/03/12-7.6-10.9-10.2-4.40.3-2.1-6.0
02/10/12-7.1-8.6-9.7-9.0-10.7-12.1-12.2
02/17/12-16.7-21.8-19.8-13.4-8.9-7.1-5.9
02/24/12-6.6-9.8-----
Accumulated Injection-Withdrawal Days
 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
Jan-578-570-359-495-512-561-390-602-626-489-245-447-486-598-560-590-354
Feb-426-308-242-283-278-375-302-479-434-306-371-523-387-324-465-401-187
Mar-307-125-197-219-46-249-213-152-68-224-175-76-175-142-74-1570
Apr523511210395101986011414116951114931851050
May2152362822772642742182502612382592792472772482360
Jun2602702242532552522482682632342472432032261962060
Jul2452352051872382221902152361781572171872081451110
Aug2552532212222272112032112561831651422201931581590
Sep2772692562712382702632762722462742482692772482530
Oct1791352161761971741231762031861402261661362311990
Nov-222-178-3436-19757-139-51-40-34-18-81-9533-73-50
Dec-354-406-321-354-653-276-418-379-404-477-254-390-423-474-512-2930
TOTAL-404-154363174-172100-119-20733-124348-111-160-95-274-176-541
 
Long Term Storage Model
 Deg Days
02/10/12186.2
02/17/12174.7
02/24/12166.2
03/02/12160.1
03/09/12154.0
03/16/12142.9
03/23/12129.1
03/30/12117.2
04/06/12107.0
04/13/1297.4
04/20/1289.1
04/27/1281.2
05/04/1274.7
05/11/1269.4
05/18/1265.4
05/25/1263.3
06/01/1262.5
06/08/1263.0
06/15/1264.3
06/22/1266.1
06/29/1268.0
07/06/1270.3
07/13/1272.3
07/20/1273.7
07/27/1274.1
08/03/1273.6
08/10/1272.6
08/17/1271.4
08/24/1269.8
08/31/1267.4
09/07/1264.8
09/14/1262.8
09/21/1262.4
Inventory
2761
2586
2467
2366
2278
2204
2171
2155
2173
2196
2241
2301
2371
2448
2536
2627
2724
2811
2894
2977
3051
3139
3207
3265
3315
3368
3420
3477
3535
3598
3684
3760
3832
Change
-127
-175
-119
-101
-88
-74
-33
-16
18
23
46
59
71
77
88
91
98
87
83
83
74
88
68
58
49
53
53
57
58
64
85
76
72
* degree days are unweighted averages of 274 US stations
* storage in BCF
Canadian Storage Sampling
 SatSunMonTueWedThuFriTOTAL
08/26/112.12.42.31.71.82.01.713.9
09/02/112.12.72.62.22.12.73.017.5
09/09/112.83.13.03.23.52.82.320.7
09/16/112.62.82.82.82.41.82.517.6
09/23/112.72.82.62.62.21.92.217.1
09/30/112.62.62.52.52.32.32.016.9
10/07/112.52.62.52.22.11.91.815.6
10/14/112.41.52.12.22.31.81.714.0
10/21/111.01.51.3-0.10.70.81.36.4
10/28/110.81.61.51.60.70.60.57.4
11/04/110.81.41.51.81.71.61.510.3
11/11/111.11.01.11.01.21.40.57.3
11/18/111.51.31.51.51.10.40.58.0
11/25/11-0.2-0.2-0.4-0.20.20.91.01.1
12/02/110.90.90.91.00.70.3-0.54.2
12/09/11-0.4-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.9-1.1-2.0-6.7
12/16/11-1.2-1.2-1.1-1.7-1.8-1.3-1.5-9.8
12/23/11-0.9-0.5-0.5-0.40.3-0.7-1.0-3.7
12/30/110.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.7-1.0-0.8-2.8
01/06/12-0.7-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.3-0.60.0-6.1
01/13/12-0.2-0.4-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.6-1.6-6.7
01/20/12-1.1-1.6-3.0-4.5-6.5-6.5-5.1-28.4
01/27/12-3.4-3.0-2.4-1.7-1.3-1.3-1.2-14.2
02/03/12-0.1-1.1-0.7-1.6-1.1-0.9-0.9-6.3
02/10/12-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.7-1.1-1.7-1.5-7.0
02/17/12-2.1-2.5-2.1-1.4-1.5-1.1-0.8-11.5
02/24/12-1.0-1.1-2.0-----4.1
 * BCF injection/day

Data provided in collaboration with Robry825.


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