Weather Market Futures

Sep 06, 2010

El Nino May Fade By June Start of Hurricane Season, Report Says

Feb 03, 2010

By Brian K. Sullivan

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- El Nino, a Pacific Ocean warming that can influence the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season, seems to have peaked in December and is now weakening, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The event is likely to be over or ending when the 2010 Atlantic season begins June 1, increasing the chances of storm activity. While the Pacific is still warmer than normal, it has cooled in recent weeks by 0.3 degree Celsius and 0.5 degree Celsius in survey areas, the bureau said in a report today.

Sub-surface water temperatures have also begun to drop, “which historically indicates that a return to neutral conditions may be under way,” the report said. “This view is supported by climate models which suggest that the tropical Pacific temperatures should gradually ease toward more average values over the coming months.”

El Nino is a warming that occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months. It is credited with making the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which ended Nov. 30, the least active in 12 years, forecasters said. Nine named storms formed in 2009, while the historical average is 11, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Nino sets up wind shear in the Atlantic that can retard the formation of hurricanes, so if it goes away by June, one of the roadblocks to an active season will be removed, said David Streit, senior meteorologist for Commodity Weather Group Llc in Bethesda, Maryland.

Threat to Gulf

Atlantic hurricanes can be a threat to Gulf of Mexico, which is home about 27 percent of U.S. oil and 15 percent of U.S. natural gas production, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

Not all forecasters are ready to accept that the phenomenon will be over by the start of hurricane season. The U.S. model still predicts El Nino may remain into June and beyond.

“I am just going to keep watching and observing trends in the ocean,” said Jim Rouiller, a senior meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania. “There are many different opinions about how quickly it will fade away.”

The current El Nino is contributing to the weather pattern that is driving winter storms across the southern U.S. and up the East Coast, Streit said.

“The heavy rains you are seeing out on the West Coast are one of the most common effects of El Nino,” Streit said.

It is also responsible for recent flooding in Peru and Ecuador, as well as drought conditions in Venezuela, Streit said. Positive effects are reliable rains in the crop areas of Brazil and Argentina, he said.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center is scheduled to release its next El Nino update tomorrow.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net.