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Sep 06, 2010
Crude Oil May Decline on Increasing U.S. Supplies, Survey Shows Feb 05, 2010
By Mark Shenk
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week as U.S. inventories climb and fuel demand lags behind year-earlier levels, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Seventeen of 43 analysts surveyed, or 40 percent, said oil will drop through Feb. 12. Fourteen respondents, or 33 percent, forecast an increase and 12 said prices will be little changed. Last week, 47 percent of analysts forecast a fall in futures.
U.S. supplies of crude oil rose 2.32 million barrels to 329 million last week, an Energy Department report on Feb. 3 showed. Refineries operated at 77.7 percent of capacity, the lowest rate since at least 1989, excluding two periods of hurricane strikes along the Gulf of Mexico, the report showed.
“The weekly inventory report could lead market participants to anticipate another large crude build,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant.
Gasoline demand over the past four weeks fell 0.5 percent to 8.64 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 2004, the report showed. Total fuel consumption over the period averaged 18.8 million barrels a day, down 2 percent from a year earlier.
Crude oil for March delivery has climbed 25 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $73.14 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 81 percent from a year ago.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
14 12 17
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net
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