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Commentary and Reports
Sep 06, 2010
EIA Discussion For Week Ending 1.29.10Ben SmithFeb 02, 2010 Projected EIA working storage for the week ending January 29th, 2010:
First Enercast Financial is predicting a withdrawal of 121 BCF for this weeks EIA release, bringing total storage to around 2,400 BCF.
Last week was driven by an extension of the warmer than normal conditions that brought a bearish withdrawal from storage the week earlier. Although not as warm as the previous week, gas population weighted heating demand was 1.8% lower than normal but nearly 16% lower than the same week last year. This makes this week’s estimate of a 121 Bcf draw from storage 74 Bcf lower than last year’s draw during this week of the season.
Looking ahead, we should expect a draw close to the seasonal average of 160 Bcf as colder temperatures had moved into the Midwest this week. This trend is expected to keep storage draws near or above average for the next two weekly draws. Helping moderate draws in the weeks ahead is the rapid response in production and supply. The current cold wave is not severe enough to cause freeze-offs, allowing supply to balance out the increase in demand in the weeks ahead.
The First Enercast Outlook Report service is available for more detailed analysis of long range storage projections and seasonal weather driven impact on energy prices. The January Outlook Report is available for purchase. For information on this research product contact us at (303)860-7494, info@firstenercastfinancial.com or visit www.firstenercastfinancial.com/outlook.php
ROBRY MODEL
==========US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)===========
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model----------------------------.....---Wkly EIA---....Baseline
_Ending__Sat___Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed___Thr___Fri__Total___Model_Actual__(Neutral)
10/30/09.....3.4.......5.7......4.4......2.9......3.1........2.3......7.1......29..........29........29...........49
11/06/09.....8.8.......7.1......4.9......3.7.....-1.3.......1.5.......0.3......25..........21........25...........20
11/13/09.....2.4.......8.2......5.4......5.2.....-0.5......-1.4.......0.7......20..........20........20...........34
11/20/09.....1.8.......3.4......2.2.....-0.2.....-2.2......-2.8.....-0.1........2............2..........2...........15
11/27/09.....0.3.......1.1......0.4......1.3.....-0.8.......1.4......-1.9........2............2..........2.............3
12/04/09....-6.2.....-4.2.....-4.6.....-9.3...-11.2....-12.9....-15.6.....-64........-47.......-64..........-55
12/11/09..-23.8...-25.7...-26.0...-25.1...-27.8....-37.1....-41.5...-207......-202.....-207........-189
12/18/09..-31.2...-21.9...-16.4...-18.0...-26.6....-26.7....-25.3...-166......-160.....-166........-147
12/25/09..-19.1...-20.0...-19.9...-19.5...-16.1....-16.2....-13.1...-124......-137.....-124........-147
01/01/10..-16.3...-17.0...-19.6...-29.2...-29.3....-23.5....-23.3...-158......-157.....-158........-161
01/08/10..-31.6...-37.2...-35.2...-37.6...-41.1....-39.9....-43.4...-266......-272.....-266........-257
01/15/10..-44.5...-40.8...-36.7...-34.9...-35.1....-29.6....-23.4...-245......-246.....-245........-227
01/22/10..-14.3...-11.1...-11.8...-11.6...-15.8....-10.8....-10.7.....-86........-97.......-86........-100
01/29/10r.-12.9...-11.2...-10.5...-17.6...-22.3....-23.1....-29.3...-126i.....-127i....................-138
02/05/10r.-31.9i..-30.1i..-20.7i...-16.4i....-9.7i.......0.1i......0.1i..-108i.....-108i
Estimated EIA-Weekly based storage (As of 02/02/10).......2286 BCF
...........................................................(As of 02/02/09).......2122 BCF...(+164 BCF YOY Surplus)
====Estimate of Operationally Available Working Gas Storage Capacity (in BCF)====
......Model down 01/28/09.
Weekly Models: EIA = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
..........................2003 & 2005 = Forward estimators of the EIA weekly data, attempting to
..........................duplicate the respective methadologies employed by the EIA beginning in
..........................2003 & 2005 respectively.
Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2005 Weekly,
.............................EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies.
.............................Initially, the 2005 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are
.............................presented, then the EIA weekly (Interpolated by the daily model), then the
.............................EIA monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly,
.............................then by the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications and
.............................adjustments removed.
Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
..............(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
..............hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.
====Past Weekly Runs vs EIA (Best Model Bracketed)=====
................For Week.....Weekly.Models......Wkly...Interpolated
__Run____Ending____2003___2005____EIA__EIA.Monthly
10/19/05..(10/14/05)........57........{67}.........75............78
10/26/05..(10/21/05)........54........{63}.........77............80
11/02/05..(10/28/05)..........4........{23}.........29............32
11/09/05..(11/04/05)........38........{45}.........51..(A).....52
11/16/05..(11/11/05).......{51}........38..........53............52
11/23/05..(11/18/05)........{-7}......-15...........-8.............-9
11/30/05..(11/25/05)........-47......{-51}.......-49...........-50
12/07/05..(12/02/05).......{-63}......-79........-59...........-60
12/14/05..(12/09/05)......-184....{-197}.....-202.........-201
12/21/05..(12/16/05)....{-158}.....-146......-162.........-161
12/28/05..(12/23/05)...{-.157}.....-156......-162.........-161
01/04/06..(12/30/05)........-21........(-8}..........1..............2
01/11/06..(01/06/06)........-37......{-25}.......-20...........-22
01/18/06..(01/13/06)........-45......(-45}.......-46...........-49
01/21/06..(01/20/06).......{-73}......-68........-81*.........-84
02/10/06..(01/20/06).......{-71}......-67........-81**........-84
02/10/06..(01/27/06).......{-75}......-70........-88**........-91
02/10/06..(02/03/06).......{-41}......-45........-38**........-41
02/15/06..(02/10/05).....{-111}....-121......-102.........-106
02/22/06..(02/17/06).....{-124}....-147......-123.........-127
03/01/06..(02/24/06)......-159....{-180}.....-171.........-175
03/08/06..(03/03/06)........-98......{-96}.......-85...........-85
03/15/06..(03/10/06)........-70......{-70}.......-55...........-50
03/22/06..(03/17/06)........-39......{-37}.......-23...........-18
03/29/06..(03/24/06).....{-109}....-115......-104...........-99
04/05/06..(03/31/06)........-30......{-12}.......-10.............-5
04/12/06..(04/07/06).........28........{27}........19............25
04/19/06..(04/14/06).........49........{61}........57(R).......63
04/26/06..(04/21/06).........81(R)...{85}(R)...80............86
05/03/06..(04/28/06).........55........{58}.........53...........59
05/10/06..(05/05/06)........{81}........78..........85...........86
05/17/06..(05/12/06)........{85}........78..........91...........90
05/24/06..(05/19/06).........85........{83}.........83...........82
05/31/06..(05/26/06)........{82}........87..........80...........79
06/08/06..(06/02/06).........88........{83}.........77...........76
06/15/06..(06/09/06)........{90}........95..........77...........75
06/22/06..(06/16/06).........93........{84}.........79...........77
06/28/06..(06/23/06).........73........{65}.........66...........64
07/05/06..(06/30/06).........83........{71}.........73...........71
07/12/06..(07/07/06)........{92}........83..........89...........91
07/19/06..(07/14/06)..........71.......{58}.........59...........61
07/26/06..(07/21/06)............7.......{..0}..........-7...........-5
08/02/06..(07/28/06)..........24.......{18}.........19...........21
08/09/06..(08/04/06)..........17........{-2}........-12.........-12
08/16/06..(08/11/06).........{42}.......27...........37..........35
08/23/06..(08/18/06)..........67.......{62}..........57..........55
08/30/06..(08/25/06).........{60}.......62...........48..........46
09/06/06..(09/01/06).........{73}.......67...........71..........69
09/13/06..(09/08/06).........{98}.......85.........108........105
09/20/06..(09/15/06).........{85}......{75}..........93..........90
09/27/06..(09/22/06).........{77}.......74...........77..........74
10/04/06..(09/29/06).........{67}.......64...........73..........70
10/11/06..(10/06/06)..........58.......{59}..........62..........68
10/18/06..(10/13/06).........{51}.......43...........53..........60
10/25/06..(10/20/06).........{18}.......16...........19..........26
11/01/06..(10/27/06).........-19......{-19}..........-9...........-2
11/08/06..(11/03/06)..........{-1}........-1...........-7...........-6
11/15/06..(11/10/06)..........{-3}........-3............5...........-3
11/21/06..(11/17/06)...........-7........{-6}..........-1...........-9
11/28/06..(11/24/06)........{-33}......-27.........-32.........-40
12/06/06..(12/01/06)........{-15}......-16.........-11.........-17
12/13/06..(12/08/06)........-158....{-167}.....-168.......-164
12/20/06..(12/15/06).........{-73}.....-64.........-71.........-67
12/28/06..(12/22/06)..........-57.....{-53}........-46.........-42
01/03/07..(12/29/06)..........-60.....{-50}........-47.........-42
01/10/07..(01/05/07)..........-61.....{-57}........-49.........-54
01/17/07..(01/12/07)..........-93.....{-87}........-89.........-98
01/20/07..(01/19/07)........-163....{-174}.....-179*.....-188
02/06/07..(01/19/07).......{-171}....-189......-179**....-188
02/06/07..(01/26/07).......{-193}....-200......-186**....-195
02/07/07..(02/02/07).......{-210}....-207......-224.......-228
02/14/07..(02/09/07).......{-250}....-275......-259.......-252
02/21/07..(02/16/07).......{-219}....-233......-223.......-216
02/28/07..(02/23/07)........-143....{-142}.....-132.......-125
03/07/07..(03/02/07).......{-105}......-92......-102.........-95
03/14/07..(03/09/07)........-109....{-111}.....-115.......-110
03/21/07..(03/16/07).............5.......{14}.........17.........-22
03/28/07..(03/23/07)..........-32......{-16}.......-22.........-17
04/04/07..(03/30/07)..........{48}.......70..........58..........63
04/11/07..(04/06/07)...........14........{21}........23..........25
04/18/07..(04/13/07)..........-47......{-45}.......-46.........-44
04/25/07..(04/20/07)............-1.........{9}.........18..........20
05/02/07..(04/27/07)...........79........{87}........87..........89
05/09/07..(05/04/07)...........84........{93}........96..........97
05/16/07..(05/11/07)...........86......{101}........95..........96
05/23/07..(05/18/07)...........93........{97}......104........105
05/30/07..(05/25/07)........{108}......111.......107........108
06/06/07..(06/01/07).........109......{111}......110........111
06/13/07..(06/08/07)........{102}......105.........92..........92
06/20/07..(06/15/07)........{104}......105.........89..........89
06/27/07..(06/22/07)..........{95}........89.........99..........99
07/04/07..(06/29/07)..........{75}........68.........78..........78
07/11/07..(07/06/07)..........102.......{99}........96..(B)...95
07/18/07..(07/13/07)............70.......{68}........65..........64
07/25/07..(07/20/07)............73.......{69}........64..(C)...63
08/01/07..(07/27/07)............84.......{79}........77..........76
08/08/07..(08/03/07)............58.......{49}........42..........41
08/15/07..(08/10/07)...........{21}.......15.........21..........19
08/22/07..(08/17/07)............32.......{21}........23..........21
08/29/07..(08/24/07)............45.......{43}........43..........41
09/05/07..(08/31/07)............43.......{41}........36..........34
09/12/07..(09/07/07)............71.......{68}........64..........68
09/19/07..(09/14/07)............69.......{69}........63..........67
09/26/07..(09/21/07)............69.......{73}........74..........78
10/03/07..(09/28/07)...........{60}.......63.........57..........61
10/10/07..(10/05/07)............68.......{74}........73..........75
10/17/07..(10/12/07)...........{40}.......45.........39..........41
10/24/07..(10/19/07)............55.......{61}........68..........70
10/31/07..(10/26/07)............59.......{61}........66..........68
11/07/07..(11/02/07)...........{31}.......29.........36..........36
11/14/07..(11/09/07)...........-21......{-17}........-9.........-12
11/21/07..(11/16/07).............{2}.........9...........4............1
11/28/07..(11/23/07)...........-23......{-20}......-12.........-15
12/05/07..(11/30/07)..........{-90}......-91.......-88.........-91
12/12/07..(12/07/07)........{-144}....-139.....-146.......-146
12/19/07..(12/14/07).........-130....{-129}....-121.......-121
12/26/07..(12/21/07).........-171....{-169}....-165.......-165
01/03/08..(12/28/07).........-109....{-104}......-87.........-87
01/10/08..(01/04/08).........-175....{-173}....-171.......-177
01/15/08..(01/11/08)...........-67......{-53}......-59.........-69
01/19/08..(01/18/08)........{-138}....-130.....-155*......-165
02/11/08..(01/18/08)........{-150}....-147.....-155**....-165
02/11/08..(01/25/08).........-263....{-266}....-274**....-284
02/11/08..(02/01/08).........-198....{-201}....-200**....-208
02/13/08..(02/08/08)........{-110}....-108......120.......-116
02/20/08..(02/15/08)........{-169}....-168.....-172.......-168
02/27/08..(02/22/08)........{-150}....-146.....-151.......-147
03/05/08..(02/29/08).........-154....{-151}....-135.......-131
03/12/08..(03/07/08)..........{-87}......-76.......-86.........-79
03/19/08..(03/14/08)...........-90......{-87}......-85.........-78
03/26/08..(03/21/08)...........-46......{-37}......-36.........-29
04/02/08..(03/28/08)...........-39......{-31}......-29.........-22
04/09/08..(04/04/08)...........-33......{-23}......-14.........-10
04/16/08..(04/11/08)............21........{24}.......27..........29
04/23/08..(04/18/08)............14........{26}.......24..........26
04/30/08..(04/25/08)............72........{86}.......86..........88
05/07/08..(05/02/08)............48........{59}.......65..........66
05/14/08..(05/09/08)............73........{82}.......93..........92
05/21/08..(05/16/08)............74........{87}.......85..........84
05/28/08..(05/23/08)............72........{86}.......87..........88.5
06/04/08..(05/30/08)...........{99}......113......105........106.5
06/11/08..(06/06/08)...........{84}........92........80..........81.9
06/18/08..(06/13/08)............62........{58}.......57..........58.9
06/25/08..(06/20/08)...........{98}........99........90..........91.9
07/02/08..(06/27/08)...........{99}.......103.......85..........86.9
07/09/08..(07/04/08).........{102}.......105.......90..........88.4
07/16/08..(07/11/08).........{104}.......107.....104..........99.7
07/23/08..(07/18/08)............89.........{82}......84..........79.7
07/30/08..(07/25/08)............73.........{67}......65..........60.7
08/06/08..(08/01/08)............66.........{65}......56..........52.3
08/13/08..(08/08/08)............64.........{59}......50..........49.5
08/20/08..(08/15/08)..........104.......{100}......88..........87.5
09/01/08..(08/22/08)............98.........{92}....102***....101.5
................For Week.........Weekly.Models..Wkly...Interpolated
__Run____Ending______2005___2007__EIA__ EIA.Monthly
09/03/08..(08/29/08)...........{92}.........87.......90..........89.5
09/10/08..(09/05/08).............57........{58}......58..........57.8
09/17/08..(09/12/08)............{65}........57.......67..........66.9
09/24/08..(09/19/08)............{52}........43.......51..........50.9
10/01/08..(09/26/08)............{87}........79.......87..........86.9
10/08/08..(10/03/08).............82.........{88}.....88..........87.4
10/15/08..(10/10/08)............{75}.......{85}.....79..........77.8
10/22/08..(10/17/08)............{72}........76.......70..........68.8
10/29/08..(10/24/08).............31........{39}......46..........44.8
11/05/08..(10/31/08)...............7........{13}......19..........17.8
11/12/08..(11/07/08).............42........{50}......60..........62.5
11/19/08..(11/14/08)...............1..........{8}......16..........18.5
11/25/08..(11/21/08)...........{-65}.......-52......-66........-63.5
12/03/08..(11/28/08)............-73.......{-61}.....-64........-61.5
12/10/08..(12/05/08)............-80.......{-72}.....-67........-68.5
12/17/08..(12/12/08).........{-126}.....-119....-124......-127.1
12/23/08..(12/19/08)..........-154.....{-152}...-147......-150.1
12/30/08..(12/26/08)..........-165.....{-153}...-143......-146.1
01/07/09..(01/02/09)............-69.......{-58}.....-47........-49.3
01/14/09..(01/09/09)..........-125.....{-112}.....-94........-94.2
01/22/09..(01/16/09)..........-191.....{-187}...-176......-176.2
01/29/09..(01/23/09)..........-198.....{-186}...-186......-186.2
02/04/09..(01/30/09)..........-216.....{-206}...-195......-195.2
02/11/09..(02/06/09)..........-187.....{-177}...-159......-158.7
02/18/09..(02/13/09)............-60.......{-52}.....-24........-23.6
02/25/09..(02/20/09)..........-138.....{-120}...-101......-100.6
03/04/09..(02/27/09)..........-133.....{-107}...-102......-101.6
03/11/09..(03/06/09)..........-135.....{-113}...-112......-109.9
03/18/09..(03/13/09)...........{-32}.......-22......-30........-27.6
03/25/09..(03/20/09).............-13.........{5}........3............5.4
04/01/09..(03/27/09).............-20.......{13}........9 (D)....11.4
04/08/09..(04/03/09)...............-1.......{14}......20..........22.2
04/15/09..(04/10/09)...............-1.......{16}......21..........23.1
04/22/09..(04/17/09)..............26.......{46}......46..........48.1
04/29/09..(04/24/09)..............71.......{84}......82..........84.1
05/06/09..(05/01/09)..............84.......{88}......95..........96.6
05/13/09..(05/08/09).............{92}.....101.......95..........92.7
05/20/09..(05/15/09)..............90.......{95}....103........100.7
05/27/09..(05/22/09)...........{113}.....116.....106........104.7
06/03/09..(05/29/09)...........{125}.....126.....124........122.7
06/10/09..(06/05/09)............109.....{107}....106........105.1
06/17/09..(06/12/09)............111.....{113}....114........113.3
06/24/09..(06/19/09).............{94}.......97.......94..........93.3
07/01/09..(06/26/09).............{74}.......78.......70..........69.3
07/08/09..(07/03/09).............{73}.......78.......75..........74.5
07/15/09..(07/10/09).............{86}.......94.......90..........89.8
07/22/09..(07/17/09)..............62.......{68}......66..........65.8
07/29/09..(07/24/09)..............64.......{70}......71..........70.8
08/05/09..(07/31/09)..............63.......{68}......66..........65.8
08/12/09..(08/07/09).............{62}.......70.......63..........64.5
08/19/09..(08/14/09)..............48.......{55}......52..........53.5
08/26/09..(08/21/09)..............40.......{49}......54..........55.5
09/02/09..(08/28/09)..............51.......{63}......65..........66.5
09/09/09..(09/04/09)..............57.......{58}......69
09/16/09..(09/11/09)..............58.......{65}......66
09/23/09..(09/18/09)..............65.......{69}......67
09/30/09..(09/25/09)..............56.......{61}......64
10/07/09..(10/02/09)..............57.......{65}......69
10/14/09..(10/09/09)..............42.......{51}......58
10/21/09..(10/16/09)................5.......{13}......18
10/28/09..(10/23/09)..............11..... {27}......25
11/04/09..(10/30/09)..............27.......{30}......29
11/11/09..(11/06/09)................6.......{21}......25
11/18/09..(11/13/09)..............10.......{20}......20
11/24/09..(11/20/09).............-16.........{1}........2
12/02/09..(11/27/09).............-16.........{3}........2
12/09/09..(12/04/09)............{-62}......-47......-64
12/16/09..(12/11/09)...........-214....{-212}...-207
12/23/09..(12/18/09)...........-174....{-169}...-166
12/30/09..(12/25/09)...........-166....{-144}...-124
01/06/10..(01/01/10)...........-171....{-158}...-158
01/13/10..(01/08/10)..........{-274}....-277....-266
01/20/10..(01/15/10)...........-251....{-250}...-245
01/27/10..(01/22/10)...........-112......{-98}.....-86
* Special Saturday-night "Pre-Vacation" run, generated without the benefit of Monday/Tuesday night "Weekly" data.
** Final estimates of the models (Generated upon return from vacation), from special model runs before EIA actuals were applied, and before the models were allowed to self-adjust to those EIA actuals.
(A) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of base gas to working gas) has been removed from the EIA's origionally-reported 61 BCF injection estimate.
(B) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of base gas to working gas) has been removed from the EIA's origionally-reported 106 BCF injection estimate.
(C) For purposes of analysis, the 7 BCF reclassification (of base gas to working gas) has been removed from the EIA's origionally-reported 71 BCF injection estimate.
(D) For purposes of analysis, the 9 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) plus corrections has been re-added to the EIA's origionally-reported 0 BCF injection estimate.
=====Canadian Storage Sampling (Injections, in BCF)=====
...Week.....-----------Daily Model------------
_Ending__Sat__Sun_ Mon_ Tue_Wed__Thur___Fri__Total
08/07/09....1.7....1.8.....1.6.....1.6....1.6....1.3.......1.4......11.0
08/14/09....1.5....1.2.....1.5.....1.3....0.9....0.8.......0.5........7.7
08/21/09....1.0....1.1.....1.1.....1.1....0.3....0.6.......0.8........5.9
08/28/09....1.5....1.3.....1.0.....1.2....0.9....0.6.......0.0........6.3
09/04/09....0.8....0.6.....0.6.....0.3....1.0....0.6.......0.9........4.8
09/11/09....0.3....0.0.....0.3.....0.4....0.2....0.6.......0.6........2.4
09/18/09....1.0....0.9.....1.1.....1.2....0.5....0.3.......0.5........5.6
09/25/09....0.9....0.6.....0.9.....0.8....0.6....0.5.......0.0........4.4
10/02/09....0.7....0.4.....0.8.....0.8....0.9....0.7.......1.2........5.7
10/09/09....1.6....1.5.....1.5.....1.2....0.8....0.1.......0.3........6.9
10/16/09....0.4....0.7.....0.7.....0.5....0.2...-0.1......-0.5........2.0
10/23/09....0.7....1.1.....1.1.....0.8....0.9....0.8.......0.6........5.9
10/30/09....0.5....0.6.....0.6.....0.6....0.5....0.7.......0.8........4.4
11/06/09....0.7....0.7.....0.4.....0.6...-0.4...-0.3.....-0.1........1.6
11/13/09....0.5....0.5.....0.4.....0.3....0.3....0.1.......0.1........2.3
11/20/09...-0.1...-0.2.....0.0.....0.1....0.0....0.2.......0.4........0.4
11/27/09....0.7....0.3.....0.4.....0.3....0.3....0.3.......0.0........2.3
12/04/09....0.1...-0.1.....0.1.....0.5...-1.0...-0.9.....-1.4.......-2.7
12/11/09...-1.0...-1.6...-1.8....-4.4...-4.5...-5.2.....-5.8.....-24.3
12/18/09...-5.5...-5.4...-5.9....-6.5...-5.9...-5.5.....-3.4.....-38.0
12/25/09...-3.7...-3.3...-3.3....-3.7...-3.5...-3.8.....-2.7.....-23.9
01/01/10...-2.4...-2.6...-2.1....-2.2...-3.8...-3.3.....-3.3.....-19.7
01/08/10...-4.4...-4.5...-4.3....-4.5...-4.4...-4.5.....-5.9.....-32.5
01/15/10...-5.6...-4.5...-4.0....-2.7...-3.1...-2.6.....-2.8.....-25.2
01/22/10...-2.5...-2.3...-2.4....-2.4...-2.4...-3.2.....-3.2.....-18.5
01/29/10...-2.8...-2.8...-3.2....-3.9...-4.5...-5.0.....-4.6.....-26.9i
02/05/10...-4.0...-3.6.........................................................-4.0i
........................Canadian Production Model
.........2002.....2003.....2004.....2005.....2006.....2007.....2008.....2009.....2010
........=====...=====...=====...=====...=====...=====...=====...=====...=====
01.....17.45....16.68....16.44....16.93....17.38....17.34....16.49....15.82....14.64i
02.....17.96....16.86....16.78....17.20....17.45....17.15....16.12....16.19
03.....17.76....16.96....17.19....17.57....17.63....17.35....16.56....16.08
04.....18.06....17.28....17.59....17.76....17.90....17.62....16.97....16.20
05.....18.06....16.57....17.47....17.22....17.73....17.28....16.60....15.54
06.....17.99....16.65....17.07....16.62....17.16....16.69....15.58....15.37
07.....17.73....16.77....17.07....17.12....17.25....16.96....16.69....15.47
08.....17.16....17.02....17.17....17.40....17.92....17.13....16.60....15.06
09.....17.26....16.77....16.83....17.11....17.20....16.87....16.44....14.27
10.....17.27....16.81....16.90....17.12....17.40....16.86....16.25....14.31
11.....17.28....16.75....17.10....17.26....16.86....16.57....16.21....14.81
12.....17.28....16.87....17.10....17.60....17.50....16.79....15.76....14.50
....Estimated sample size: 77%
===============US Longer-Term Model===================
2009 Spring..1651 BCF*...Fall..3837 BCF*
2010 Spring..1523 BCF.....Fall..3455 BCF
2011 Spring..1222 BCF.....Fall..3175 BCF
......*=Actuals for weeks ended 03/13/09 & 11/27/09
____Run___F-07_S-08____Run___S-08_F-08____Run___F-08_S-09_____Run___S-09_F-09____Run___F-09_S-10_____Run___S-10_F-10
....09/24/07..3498..1142....11/21/07..1292..3210....04/17/08..3469..1150....11/20/08..1639..4233....03/26/09..4674..3082....12/10/09..1706..3580
....09/27/07..3497..1167....11/28/07..1404..3432....04/24/08....n/a.....n/a.....11/27/08..1630..4273....04/03/09..4556..2906....12/17/09..1598..3443
....10/04/07..3491..1268....12/06/07..1432..3530....05/04/08..3613..1208....12/04/08..1688..4479..........................................12/24/09..1550..3358
....10/11/07..3502..1284....12/13/07..1333..3421....05/08/08..3617..1215....12/11/08..1770..4738..........................................12/31/09..1603..3481
....10/18/07..3464..1051....12/20/07..1359..3514....05/15/08..3630..1228....12/18/08..1708..4699....04/23/09..4479..2807....01/07/10..1611..3543
....10/25/07..3489..1110....12/27/07..1314..3429....05/22/08..3678..1304....12/25/08..1697..4652....04/30/09..4420..2706....01/14/10..1493..3407
....11/01/07..3526..1092....01/04/07..1410..3609....06/01/08..3635..1262....01/04/09..1788..4916....05/07/09..4362..2606....01/21/10..1399..3242
....11/08/07..3545..1035....01/11/07..1372..3519....06/05/08..3651..1285....01/08/09..1827..5036....05/14/09..4320..2538....01/28/10..1523..3455
....11/15/07..3545..1159....01/17/07..1456..3560....06/13/08..3614..1239....01/15/09..1863..5333....05/21/09..4311..2523
..........................................02/12/08..1341..3303....06/20/08..3668..1391....01/25/09..1805..5223....05/28/09..4297..2507
..........................................02/14/08..1297..3141....06/27/08..3670..1402....01/29/09..1755..5143....06/04/09..4292..2499
..........................................02/21/08..1273..3185....07/03/08..3691..1446....02/05/09..1714..5029....06/11/09..4212..2373
..........................................02/28/08..1256..3323....07/10/08..3720..1504....02/12/09..1660..4894....06/18/09..4223..2386
..........................................03/06/08..1240..3428....07/17/08..3812..1678....02/19/09..1744..5041....06/25/09..4207..2358
..........................................03/13/08..1249..3457....07/24/08..3867..1796....02/26/09..1721..4984....07/02/09..4153..2278
..........................................03/20/08..1237..3424....07/31/08..3929..1954....03/05/09..1685..4996....07/09/09..4107..2205
..........................................03/27/08..1251..3468....08/07/08..3914..1949....03/12/09..1621..4890....07/16/09..4077..2151
..........................................03/27/08..1251..3468....08/14/08..3892..1940....03/19/09..1629..4759....07/23/09..4084..2180
..........................................04/03/08..1248..3621....08/21/08..3833..1802..........................................07/30/09..4071..2148
..........................................04/10/08..1234..3540....09/02/08..3816..1768..........................................08/06/09..4067..2136
................................................................................09/04/08..3815..1758..........................................08/13/09..4058..2117
................................................................................09/11/08..3731..1615..........................................08/20/09..4042..2097
................................................................................09/18/08..3667..1514..........................................08/27/09..4014..2048
................................................................................09/25/08..3564..1308..........................................09/03/09..3997..2004
................................................................................10/02/08..3538..1281..........................................09/10/09..3971..1939
................................................................................10/09/08..3507..1288..........................................09/17/09..3924..1829
................................................................................10/16/08..3487..1228..........................................09/24/09..3890..1739
................................................................................10/23/08..3452..1464..........................................10/01/09..3870..1676
................................................................................10/30/08..3438..1518..........................................10/08/09..3869..1679
................................................................................11/06/08..3424..1464..........................................10/15/09..3859..1646
................................................................................11/14/08..3479..1594..........................................10/22/09..3813..1591
............................................................................................................................................................10/29/09..3793..1542
............................................................................................................................................................11/05/09..3790..1479
............................................................................................................................................................11/12/09..3813..1507
............................................................................................................................................................11/19/09..3833..1541
............................................................................................................................................................11/25/09..3835..1595
............................................................................................................................................................12/03/09..3837..1693
======Longer-Term Model Storage Projections:======
...Week.........Normal.......Projected Storage
_Ending____D-Days__Change___Inventory
01/22/10.......199.8.......-86 BCF.....2521 BCF
01/29/10.......198.7.....-181 BCF.....2339 BCF
02/05/10.......193.2.....-169 BCF.....2170 BCF
02/12/10.......182.1.....-152 BCF.....2017 BCF
02/19/10.......172.1.....-126 BCF.....1890 BCF
02/26/10.......164.3.....-103 BCF.....1787 BCF
03/05/10.......158.7.......-93 BCF.....1694 BCF
03/12/10.......151.0.......-81 BCF.....1612 BCF
03/19/10.......139.8.......-61 BCF.....1550 BCF
03/26/10.......125.4.......-26 BCF.....1523 BCF
04/02/10.......113.2..........0 BCF.....1523 BCF
04/09/10.......103.2........16 BCF.....1540 BCF
04/16/10.........95.4........25 BCF.....1565 BCF
04/23/10.........86.5........49 BCF.....1614 BCF
04/30/10.........79.8........62 BCF.....1677 BCF
Note- US Longer-Term Model projections are not "Predictions", but are extrapolations carried forward (based upon the previous 10 weeks estimated supply/demand balance & energy pricing) to either a reasonable or unreasonable conclusion. As this model is intended for the long-term, MMS/hurricane curtailments are projected on a fully-restored basis.
==========Daily Model Baseline Score==========
..........(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Week____Sat__ Sun_Mon__Tue_ Wed__Thr__Fri
11/27/09......1.8....0.3....0.7.....0.1......1.5....-2.8....-0.5
12/04/09......3.7....1.6....2.4....-0.9.....-0.1.....1.8.....0.3
12/11/09......0.5....0.5....0.4.....0.7......1.4.....7.4.....7.2
12/18/09.....-0.2....3.8....3.7.....2.9......5.5.....2.2.....1.5
12/25/09.....-3.0...-2.5...-0.8...-1.2.....-6.4....-4.9....-3.9
01/01/10......0.8....0.5...-0.4.....0.6.....-1.7....-2.4....-0.1
01/08/10......0.1...-0.4...-5.0....-0.3......4.8.....4.0.....5.5
01/15/10......2.1...-2.5...-1.8.....2.6......5.5.....4.9.....6.9
01/22/10.....-0.1...-1.3...-0.8...-0.8.....-0.4....-6.9....-3.6
01/29/10r....-1.7...-0.4...-0.3....0.0.....-2.0....-4.6....-2.7
02/05/10r...-5.9...-6.9i
======Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score=======
..........(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Week____Sat__ Sun_Mon__Tue_ Wed__Thr__Fri
11/27/09.....-6.3...-6.4....-6.3...-8.3....-7.1....-8.7....-2.8
12/04/09......0.8...-4.9....-3.9...-3.5....-2.1....-1.7.....1.4
12/11/09......8.0.....9.7.....8.6....6.2.....5.0....16.3...22.7
12/18/09....11.2.....5.3....-1.2...-0.9.....7.9.....8.3.....5.7
12/25/09......0.0.....0.8.....0.3...-2.4....-7.5....-5.8....-4.8
01/01/10.....-0.1.....0.1.....2.5...10.5...10.1.....3.9.....5.9
01/08/10....13.5...19.1...13.4...15.4...18.1...15.6...20.6
01/15/10....21.8...18.5...14.1...11.4...10.1.....3.4....-1.1
01/22/10...-11.1.-13.3..-14.0..-15.1..-13.6..-18.3..-14.7
01/29/10r..-12.9.-13.6..-14.8....-8.3....-4.3....-4.9.....3.4
02/05/10.......7.1....6.9
=================Fair-Value Model==================
.................----10 Week Average-----
__Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal________
01/16/10......1.06......4.86....15.80.....Fair-Value Much > 4.86
01/17/10......1.03......4.89....15.72.....Fair-Value Much > 4.89
01/18/10......0.99......4.92....15.63.....Fair-Value Much > 4.92
01/19/10......0.93......4.94....15.55.....Fair-Value Much > 4.94
01/20/10......0.86......4.97....15.46.....Fair-Value Much > 4.97
01/21/10......0.74......5.00....15.36.....Fair-Value Much > 5.00
01/22/10......0.68......5.05....15.22.....Fair-Value Much > 5.05
01/23/10......0.63......5.09....15.08.....Fair-Value Much > 5.09
01/24/10......0.58......5.14....14.94.....Fair-Value Much > 5.14
01/25/10......0.54r.....5.18....14.80.....Fair-Value Much > 5.18
01/26/10......0.53r.....5.21....14.70.....Fair-Value Much > 5.21
01/27/10......0.50r.....5.24....14.62.....Fair-Value Much > 5.24
01/28/10......0.41r.....5.26....14.54.....Fair-Value Much > 5.26
01/29/10......0.33r.....5.29....14.44.....Fair-Value Much > 5.29
01/30/10......0.22r.....5.32....14.35.....Fair-Value Much > 5.32
01/31/10......0.12......5.35....14.35.....Fair-Value > 5.35
Fair Value Crossings (From 08/21/08 Model Run)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....03/09/03......6.49........5.33.....(on $34.60 oil)
.....03/24/04......5.50........6.44.....(on $35.42 oil)
.....05/31/04......5.90........6.45.....(on $38.09 oil)
.....12/15/04......6.16........7.99.....(on $49.21 oil)
.....04/01/05......6.53........7.79.....(on $50.90 oil)
.....05/11/05......6.99........7.62.....(on $53.29 oil)
.....05/18/06......6.91........9.82.....(on $67.85 oil)
.....12/09/06......6.71........8.89.....(on $59.63 oil)
.....07/27/07......6.96........9.95.....(on $69.28 oil)
.....04/04/08......8.90......11.21.....(on $99.71 oil)
.....05/16/08....10.08......11.16.....(on $112.57 oil)
.....06/10/08....10.96......11.07.....(on $121.24 oil)
.....09/13/09......3.07......22.13.....(on $67.96 oil) ***
*** Preliminary Fair-Value "Snapshot" generated 09/15/09,
subject to confirmation by EIA monthly actuals and/or
pipeline/storage-operator revisions.
=============Fundamentals Assessment===============
E&P's..............................................................................Neutral
Natgas Futures (Cash Through End of Strip).................Neutral
*** Fundamentals Assessment confidence somewhat lower
until Longer-term model work is completed.
========================Monthly Accumulated Injection (Withdrawal) Days=========================
Month....94......95......96......97......98.......99......00......01......02......03.......04......05......06.......07.......08.......09.......10
..01.....-678...-449...-576...-568...-357...-492...-507...-555...-385...-595...-619...-482...-240...-440...-478....-587....-550i
..02.....-472...-403...-425...-306...-240...-281...-275...-371...-297...-473...-427...-301...-364...-515...-379....-327
..03.....-159...-110...-305...-123...-194...-216.....-44...-245...-209...-149.....-65...-219...-170.....-72...-169....-137
..04......135.......65......53......36....113.....104......96....102......99.......62....116....142....170......53.....116.......95
..05......253.....263....216....236....282.....277....264....274....218.....250....261....238....259....279.....248.....277
..06......248.....266....261....271....228.....255....255....252....248.....268....263....232....246....241.....198.....222
..07......245.....232....250....241....212.....193....240....223....190.....214....235....173....150....213.....180.....202
..08......263.....227....259....256....227.....225....229....212....204.....210....255....178....159....133.....215.....185
..09......282.....253....277....269....258.....271....238....270....263.....276....272....245....274....247.....269.....277
..10......211.....213....179....136....216.....176....198....175....124.....177....204....187....141....226.....168.....138
..11.......-29...-187...-221...-177.....-33......37...-195.......59..-136......-49.....-37.....-31....-15.....-77......-91.......27
..12.....-296...-492...-352...-404...-318...-351...-647...-272...-413....-373...-398...-469..-248...-382....-415...-473
Sum of all months (Gives annual Injection/Withdrawal days over (under) average):
................5...-122...-382...-133....393.....200...-147.....124....-93....-181......58....-107...362.....-93....-139
=================Monthly Average Temperature (Unweighted Average of 274 US Stations)==================
Month....94......95......96......97......98.......99.....00......01......02......03......04.......05......06......07......08......09.....Avg
..01......32.9...38.5...34.9...35.5...41.1...38.3...37.2...35.4...40.4...34.2...34.2....37.9...44.1...38.0...36.6...34.6...37.1
..02......38.1...39.9...39.7...41.9...43.8...43.7...44.0...40.3...41.0...36.8...38.3....42.0...39.4...35.8...39.9...41.3...40.4
..03......48.4...49.1...43.4...49.5...46.8...45.9...51.1...44.8...46.0...48.1...50.8....45.8...47.8...51.7...47.0...48.6...47.8
..04......58.2...55.3...54.9...53.1...56.0...57.4...55.8...58.1...58.5...56.3...57.0....56.7...59.8...55.0...56.7...56.7...56.6
..05......64.2...64.6...65.5...62.5...67.8...65.0...67.2...66.2...63.4...64.8...67.1....63.3...65.8...67.1...64.3...66.2...65.3
..06......74.9...72.4...73.2...71.7...73.3...72.7...72.7...72.7...73.9...71.3...72.0....74.2...73.6...74.0...74.6...73.6...73.2
..07......76.7...77.6...75.8...76.3...77.8...78.0...75.7...76.4...78.1...76.9...75.7....78.1...78.7...76.6...77.3...75.4...76.9
..08......74.5...78.1...75.1...74.4...76.9...75.9...76.1...76.6...76.3...76.9...73.3....77.2...77.1...78.5...75.4...75.7...76.1
..09......69.1...68.5...68.0...69.8...72.5...68.7...68.9...68.0...71.3...68.4...70.1....72.1...67.8...71.4...70.0...70.0...69.7
..10......59.4...60.0...58.4...58.5...60.0...58.6...59.6...58.3...57.5...59.3...60.3....59.9...57.4...62.9...58.4...56.7...59.1
..11......50.7...45.6...44.8...45.6...50.4...52.0...44.7...52.9...46.4...49.9...49.7....50.2...49.9...48.5...47.7...51.2...48.8
..12......42.7...37.9...40.7...39.2...42.1...40.9...31.9...42.9...39.4...39.8...39.5....37.1...43.4...40.5...38.8...36.9...39.6
Year.....57.5...57.3...56.2...56.5...59.0...58.1...57.1...57.7...57.7...56.9...57.3....57.9...58.7...58.3...57.2...57.2...57.5
========Daily Injection (Withdrawal) Days=========
._Week___Sat__ Sun__Mon_ Tue_Wed__Thr___Fri
12/18/09..-20.3..-13.1....-8.6...-9.7..-14.1.-16.9..-16.1
12/25/09..-15.9..-16.7..-15.7.-14.6..-15.2.-15.5..-15.5
01/01/10..-15.2..-15.3..-17.2.-21.7..-22.6.-18.5..-18.1
01/08/10..-23.3..-27.7..-27.4.-25.7..-24.0.-22.9..-25.4
01/15/10..-28.8..-29.4..-25.8.-21.2..-18.6.-14.8..-10.8
01/22/10....-9.3....-9.4....-9.1...-8.4....-9.1.-10.1..-10.2
01/29/10..-10.0....-8.4....-7.2.-11.2..-15.4.-16.7..-20.9
02/05/10..-25.3..-25.5
===========Daily Demand-Days Model===========
._Week___Sat__ Sun__Mon_ Tue_Wed__Thr___Fri
12/18/09...31.3...25.7...22.4...23.2...26.5...28.7...28.1
12/25/09...27.9...28.5...27.8...26.9...27.4...27.6...27.6
01/01/10...27.4...27.5...28.9...32.4...33.0...29.9...29.6
01/08/10...33.6...37.0...36.7...35.4...34.2...33.3...35.2
01/15/10...37.8...38.3...35.5...32.0...30.0...27.1...24.0
01/22/10...22.9...22.9...22.7...22.2...22.7...23.4...23.5
01/29/10...23.4...22.2...21.3...24.3...27.5...28.5...31.8
02/05/10...35.1...35.2
=======Old Degree-Days Model (HDD+CDD)=======
._Week___Sat__ Sun__Mon_ Tue_Wed__Thr___Fri
12/18/09...27.7...21.9...20.5...23.5...27.7...27.3...25.9
12/25/09...26.7...27.1...25.8...25.2...26.2...26.2...26.4
01/01/10...25.6...26.8...28.8...33.5...29.9...27.2...29.8
01/08/10...35.2...36.3...34.7...33.9...32.3...32.6...36.2
01/15/10...37.8...37.2...32.1...29.9...28.1...23.8...21.5
01/22/10...21.6...21.5...21.0...20.2...21.3...22.1...22.1
01/29/10...21.6...19.7...20.1...26.0...26.5...27.8...33.1
02/05/10...35.0...33.8
==============================Monthly.US.Dry-Gas.Supply.Models.(BCF/Day)=============================
......................Net.US.Supply..............................Production.......................Dry-Gas.Imports........LNG.Imports.(Revaporized)
_____ 2007__2008__2009__2010___ 2007__2008__2009__2010__ 2007_2008_2009_2010__ 2007_2008_2009_2010
01......58.89...64.38...69.05...69.45i.....48.07...55.37...60.79...59.75i....9.08...8.17...7.20...7.93i......1.73...0.84...1.07...1.77i
02......62.22...64.54...67.72..................50.65...55.94...59.92.................9.93...7.95...6.94................1.64...0.65...0.86...........
03......61.56...64.34...66.10..................51.26...56.20...58.87.................7.55...7.48...6.30................2.75...0.66...0.93...........
04......62.94...63.67...66.92..................51.34...55.03...59.67.................8.21...7.84...5.88................3.39...0.81...1.37...........
05......64.02...62.06...64.02..................53.19...54.81...57.82.................7.42...6.46...4.70................3.41...0.79...1.49...........
06......64.67...65.28...65.16..................53.76...57.86...58.19.................7.80...6.61...5.77................3.11...0.81...1.20...........
07......64.57...66.08...63.36..................53.29...57.80...55.38.................8.13...7.30...7.09................3.15...0.98...0.89...........
08......66.24...66.16...64.03..................54.29...57.97...55.70.................8.98...7.39...7.65................2.96...0.80...0.68...........
09......63.97...60.86...60.63..................53.92...52.61...52.81.................8.59...7.43...7.11................1.46...0.82...0.71...........
10......62.43...62.67...61.60..................53.63...54.72...55.19.................8.06...7.14...5.65................0.74...0.81...0.76...........
11......63.10...65.20...63.43..................55.37...57.55...56.89.................6.99...6.94...5.77................0.74...0.70...0.76...........
12......64.49...65.95...66.36..................55.47...57.97...58.33.................8.33...7.21...6.70................0.69...0.77...1.33...........
=====================================Monthly US Dry-Gas Import/Export Models (BCF/Day)=====================================
.........Net US Dry-Gas Imports.................Canadian Imports...................Canadian.Exports.................Mexican Imports*..............Mexican Exports*
____ 2007_2008_2009_2010____ 2007__2008__2009__2010___2007_2008_2009_2010___2007_2008_2009_2010__ 2007_2008_2009_2010
01......9.08...8.17...7.20...7.93i.......11.89...11.94...11.10...11.18i......2.20...2.62...3.16...2.45i.......0.43...0.02...0.07...0.00i.....1.04...1.17...0.82...0.80i
02......9.93...7.95...6.94..................12.47...11.75...11.23...................1.89...2.58...3.47.................0.28...0.00...0.00................0.92...1.22...0.81...........
03......7.55...7.48...6.30..................10.79...11.56...10.08...................2.68...2.96...3.01.................0.29...0.00...0.00................0.86...1.12...0.76...........
04......8.21...7.84...5.88..................10.85...10.93.....9.20...................2.49...2.43...2.77.................0.58...0.26...0.12................0.74...0.92...0.67...........
05......7.42...6.46...4.70..................10.83.....9.84.....8.19...................2.40...2.43...2.64.................0.06...0.00...0.00................1.07...0.96...0.85...........
06......7.80...6.61...5.77..................11.27.....9.91.....9.02...................2.25...2.15...2.37.................0.00...0.00...0.00................1.22...1.15...0.87...........
07......8.13...7.30...7.09..................11.57...10.80...10.05...................2.37...2.22...1.98.................0.20...0.00...0.00................1.28...1.27...0.99...........
08......8.98...7.39...7.65..................12.23...10.70...10.75...................2.01...2.08...2.12.................0.02...0.00...0.00................1.25...1.23...0.98...........
09......8.59...7.43...7.11..................11.84...10.71...10.10...................2.24...2.12...2.00.................0.17...0.00...0.00................1.18...1.17...0.98...........
10......8.06...7.14...5.65..................11.20...10.67.....8.43...................2.04...2.31...1.87.................0.00...0.01...0.00................1.10...1.22...0.91...........
11......6.99...6.94...5.77..................10.73...10.35.....9.31...................2.64...2.51...2.69.................0.00...0.27...0.00................1.09...1.16...0.85...........
12......8.33...7.21...6.70..................12.26...10.88...10.25...................2.96...2.70...2.67.................0.13...0.19...0.00................1.09...1.16...0.88...........
......* = Experimental Model
===============Daily Net US Supply Model (BCF/Day)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09....62.00....62.32....63.55....63.58....65.50....63.32....64.30....444.58
12/04/09....64.07....63.64....65.71....65.94....64.88....64.12....63.91....452.28
12/11/09....63.87....64.33....65.20....63.97....64.50....70.32....67.45....459.64
12/18/09....64.54....64.01....64.01....64.69....68.37....70.78....69.83....466.24
12/25/09....69.42....69.81....71.10....69.91....68.12....65.50....63.95....477.81
01/01/10....62.89....63.16....66.48....68.62....67.70....65.90....67.81....462.57
01/08/10....71.53....74.17....74.79....73.31....73.76....70.47....70.94....508.97
01/15/10....73.77....73.34....72.30....71.75....70.16....68.37....66.57....496.24
01/22/10....64.47....65.22....66.54....66.04....66.98....66.51....66.12....461.88
01/29/10....65.92....65.24....65.89....68.81....68.04....69.68....71.75....475.33
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09....70.07....68.59....70.07....72.18....71.50....69.30....67.13....488.84
01/30/09....68.25....69.53....69.89....69.26....68.00....69.79....70.86....485.58
02/06/09....71.35....66.45....67.51....71.44....73.01....73.55....68.65....491.95
02/13/09....65.34....65.85....67.42....65.04....63.71....64.31....66.42....458.08
02/20/09....66.47....67.39....68.53....67.92....67.12....68.10....68.76....474.29
===============Daily US Production Model (BCF/Day)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09....56.11....56.50....57.42....57.63....59.00....57.06....57.88....401.59
12/04/09....57.52....57.20....58.94....58.94....57.82....57.55....57.17....405.15
12/11/09....56.92....57.70....57.92....56.57....56.18....60.28....58.42....403.98
12/18/09....56.88....56.65....56.77....57.04....59.19....61.08....60.44....408.07
12/25/09....60.45....60.62....61.67....60.89....59.79....57.65....56.60....417.65
01/01/10....55.76....55.85....58.72....59.59....59.39....57.72....59.11....406.14
01/08/10....62.27....64.04....64.14....62.76....62.98....58.71....58.10....433.00
01/15/10....61.43....61.50....60.65....61.16....60.49....58.88....57.82....421.93
01/22/10....56.21....56.97....58.18....57.60....58.37....58.14....57.81....403.27
01/29/10....57.84....57.14....57.67....60.01....59.48....60.13....61.22....413.50
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09....61.60....60.54....62.05....63.68....63.14....61.81....59.30....432.13
01/30/09....60.07....61.04....61.41....60.83....59.94....61.86....62.91....428.06
02/06/09....63.24....58.90....59.78....62.94....63.48....64.40....61.11....433.85
02/13/09....57.76....58.10....59.55....58.11....56.69....57.26....58.93....406.40
02/20/09....58.77....59.70....60.73....60.03....59.13....59.79....60.60....418.76
....Estimated sample size: 72%
===========Daily US Net Dry-Gas Imports Model (BCF/Day)===========
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09......5.41......5.31......5.61......5.29......5.86......5.64......5.81......38.92
12/04/09......5.93......5.82......6.13......5.63......4.94......5.42......5.59......39.47
12/11/09......6.00......5.73......6.32......6.22......6.87......8.28......7.71......47.14
12/18/09......6.61......6.33......6.33......6.36......6.94......7.25......7.70......47.52
12/25/09......7.80......7.83......7.96......7.43......6.96......6.39......6.47......50.83
01/01/10......6.57......6.64......6.78......7.40......6.52......6.73......7.43......48.07
01/08/10......7.38......7.80......8.13......8.32......8.69......9.34......9.80......59.47
01/15/10......9.49......9.15......9.11......8.60......7.70......7.76......7.01......58.83
01/22/10......7.00......6.99......7.05......7.08......7.31......7.19......7.11......49.74
01/29/10......7.03......7.10......7.15......7.52......7.35......8.17......8.85......53.17
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09......7.13......6.89......6.77......7.14......7.26......6.81......7.18......49.19
01/30/09......7.41......7.53......7.59......7.70......7.37......7.16......7.14......51.90
02/06/09......7.27......6.81......7.02......7.66......8.16......7.79......6.84......51.55
02/13/09......6.86......7.03......7.07......6.18......6.30......6.38......6.80......46.62
02/20/09......6.92......6.90......7.04......7.12......7.29......7.57......7.22......50.06
....Estimated sample size: 120%
==========Daily US LNG Imports (As Revaporized, BCF/Day)===========
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09......0.48......0.51......0.53......0.67......0.64......0.62......0.61........4.06
12/04/09......0.62......0.63......0.64......1.37......2.12......1.14......1.14........7.66
12/11/09......0.95......0.90......0.96......1.18......1.45......1.76......1.33........8.52
12/18/09......1.05......1.03......0.91......1.29......2.24......2.46......1.68......10.65
12/25/09......1.17......1.36......1.48......1.60......1.38......1.46......0.89........9.32
01/01/10......0.57......0.67......0.98......1.63......1.79......1.45......1.26........8.36
01/08/10......1.89......2.33......2.52......2.23......2.09......2.42......3.03......16.51
01/15/10......2.85......2.69......2.53......1.99......1.96......1.73......1.73......15.48
01/22/10......1.26......1.26......1.32......1.36......1.31......1.18......1.19........8.87
01/29/10......1.05......0.99......1.07......1.28......1.21......1.38......1.68........8.66
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09......1.33......1.17......1.24......1.35......1.11......0.68......0.64........7.52
01/30/09......0.77......0.97......0.90......0.74......0.69......0.77......0.81........5.63
02/06/09......0.85......0.74......0.71......0.84......1.37......1.36......0.70........6.56
02/13/09......0.72......0.71......0.80......0.75......0.72......0.68......0.68........5.06
02/20/09......0.78......0.79......0.76......0.77......0.70......0.74......0.94........5.48
....Estimated sample size: 81%
===========Daily US Net Dry-Gas Imports Model (BCF/Day)===========
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09......5.41......5.31......5.61......5.29......5.86......5.64......5.81......38.92
12/04/09......5.93......5.82......6.13......5.63......4.94......5.42......5.59......39.47
12/11/09......6.00......5.73......6.32......6.22......6.87......8.28......7.71......47.14
12/18/09......6.61......6.33......6.33......6.36......6.94......7.25......7.70......47.52
12/25/09......7.80......7.83......7.96......7.43......6.96......6.39......6.47......50.83
01/01/10......6.57......6.64......6.78......7.40......6.52......6.73......7.43......48.07
01/08/10......7.38......7.80......8.13......8.32......8.69......9.34......9.80......59.47
01/15/10......9.49......9.15......9.11......8.60......7.70......7.76......7.01......58.83
01/22/10......7.00......6.99......7.05......7.08......7.31......7.19......7.11......49.74
01/29/10......7.03......7.10......7.15......7.52......7.35......8.17......8.85......53.17
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09......7.13......6.89......6.77......7.14......7.26......6.81......7.18......49.19
01/30/09......7.41......7.53......7.59......7.70......7.37......7.16......7.14......51.90
02/06/09......7.27......6.81......7.02......7.66......8.16......7.79......6.84......51.55
02/13/09......6.86......7.03......7.07......6.18......6.30......6.38......6.80......46.62
02/20/09......6.92......6.90......7.04......7.12......7.29......7.57......7.22......50.06
....Estimated sample size: 120%
=============Daily US Imports From Canada (BCF/Day)==============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09......8.95......8.86......9.19......8.69......9.32......9.21......9.27......63.50
12/04/09......9.22......9.22......9.70......9.33......8.54......9.11......9.22......64.33
12/11/09......9.35......9.15......9.97......9.60....10.55....11.77....11.22......71.61
12/18/09....10.08......9.64......9.71......9.83....10.50....10.92....11.37......72.06
12/25/09....11.52....11.50....11.52....11.10....10.72....10.07......9.90......76.32
01/01/10......9.88......9.98....10.22....10.89....10.31....10.18....10.50......71.97
01/08/10....10.45....10.80....11.11....11.24....11.46....11.85....12.17......79.08
01/15/10....11.94....11.90....11.93....11.65....11.03....11.34....10.67......80.47
01/22/10....10.80....10.79....10.96....10.81....10.93....10.73....10.92......75.94
01/29/10....10.86....10.87....11.01....10.93....10.79....11.44....11.67......77.58
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09....11.44....11.27....11.23....11.10....11.17....10.81....10.77......77.80
01/30/09....11.16....11.29....11.62....11.59....11.76....11.32....11.13......79.87
02/06/09....11.45....10.68....10.98....11.68....12.19....11.96....11.15......80.08
02/13/09....10.99....11.18....11.35....10.39....10.54....10.67....11.31......76.44
02/20/09....11.34....11.36....11.42....11.47....11.76....11.93....11.63......80.90
....Estimated sample size: 115%
==============Daily US Exports To Canada (BCF/Day)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09......2.64......2.68......2.73......2.57......2.62......2.78......2.67......18.68
12/04/09......2.55......2.61......2.75......2.78......2.64......2.68......2.67......18.69
12/11/09......2.53......2.50......2.72......2.44......2.69......2.45......2.49......17.82
12/18/09......2.54......2.38......2.44......2.47......2.62......2.79......2.82......18.05
12/25/09......2.93......2.89......2.75......2.83......2.91......2.88......2.74......19.94
01/01/10......2.62......2.64......2.68......2.65......2.93......2.71......2.36......18.58
01/08/10......2.34......2.25......2.21......2.06......1.91......1.74......1.56......14.07
01/15/10......1.64......1.95......2.00......2.19......2.43......2.76......2.85......15.82
01/22/10......3.03......3.03......3.15......2.95......2.81......2.72......2.94......20.63
01/29/10......3.03......2.98......3.05......2.52......2.60......2.48......2.03......18.68
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09......3.54......3.61......3.63......3.12......3.06......3.21......2.84......23.02
01/30/09......3.04......3.09......3.33......3.16......3.55......3.30......3.13......22.60
02/06/09......3.34......3.13......3.22......3.26......3.28......3.41......3.50......23.14
02/13/09......3.38......3.38......3.52......3.40......3.36......3.38......3.64......24.06
02/20/09......3.59......3.64......3.54......3.47......3.59......3.49......3.55......24.89
....Estimated sample size: 205%
=============Daily US Imports From Mexico (BCF/Day)==============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
12/04/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
12/11/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
12/18/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
12/25/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
01/01/10......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
01/08/10......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
01/15/10......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
01/22/10......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
01/29/10......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
01/30/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
02/06/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
02/13/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
02/20/09......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00......0.00........0.00
....Estimated sample size: 8%
==============Daily US Exports To Mexico (BCF/Day)===============
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09......0.89......0.88......0.86......0.83......0.84......0.79......0.79........5.89
12/04/09......0.73......0.79......0.81......0.91......0.96......1.01......0.96........6.18
12/11/09......0.82......0.92......0.93......0.94......0.99......1.04......1.03........6.66
12/18/09......0.93......0.94......0.93......1.00......0.95......0.89......0.85........6.49
12/25/09......0.80......0.78......0.81......0.84......0.85......0.79......0.69........5.56
01/01/10......0.70......0.70......0.77......0.84......0.86......0.74......0.70........5.31
01/08/10......0.73......0.75......0.77......0.85......0.86......0.77......0.81........5.54
01/15/10......0.81......0.80......0.82......0.86......0.89......0.82......0.81........5.81
01/22/10......0.77......0.77......0.76......0.77......0.81......0.82......0.86........5.56
01/29/10......0.79......0.79......0.82......0.89......0.84......0.79......0.80........5.73
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09......0.77......0.77......0.83......0.83......0.85......0.80......0.74........5.59
01/30/09......0.71......0.67......0.70......0.74......0.84......0.86......0.86........5.38
02/06/09......0.84......0.74......0.74......0.76......0.74......0.76......0.80........5.39
02/13/09......0.75......0.77......0.76......0.81......0.88......0.91......0.87........5.75
02/20/09......0.82......0.82......0.83......0.88......0.88......0.87......0.85........5.95
....Estimated sample size: 81%
============================================Monthly.US.Dry-Gas.Demand.Models.(BCF/Day)============================================
.....................................................................Residential.and
..................Net.US.Demand.....................Commercial.Demand.................Generation.Demand..................Industrial.Demand........................Storage.Demand
____ 2007__2008__2009__2010__ 2007__2008__2009__2010__ 2007__2008__2009__2010__ 2007__2008__2009__2010___ 2007__ 2008__2009__2010
01....58.89...64.38...69.05...69.32i...42.76...47.77...53.74...50.58i...15.45...18.72...16.96...18.38i....22.54...24.20...21.26...26.11i....-21.86...-26.32..-22.91..-25.76i
02....62.22...64.54...67.72................49.74...44.29...42.78................16.04...16.51...16.96................22.76...24.32...21.21.................-26.32...-20.57..-13.22..............
03....61.56...64.34...66.10................27.30...31.87...32.52................13.63...15.24...16.03................22.37...24.34...20.95...................-1.74.....-7.10....-3.40..............
04....62.94...63.67...66.92................19.37...16.10...22.16................15.87...18.11...16.22................23.43...23.21...19.97....................4.27......6.26......8.57..............
05....64.02...62.06...64.02..................9.45.....8.83...12.65................17.88...16.93...17.64................21.89...23.23...18.73..................14.80....13.08....15.00..............
06....64.67...65.28...65.16..................8.65.....9.53...12.17................21.10...21.44...20.32................22.01...22.94...19.66..................12.90....11.36....13.01..............
07....64.57...66.08...63.36..................6.81.....7.48.....7.48................24.76...24.90...24.66................22.79...22.63...20.69..................10.21....11.07....10.53..............
08....66.24...66.16...64.03................10.18.....6.80.....7.92................29.58...24.97...26.22................22.46...22.92...21.11....................4.02....11.47......8.77..............
09....63.97...60.86...60.63..................8.19.....5.88.....4.54................22.64...21.42...23.65................23.10...23.75...22.92..................10.04......9.81......9.53..............
10....62.43...62.67...61.60................10.09...14.24...14.50................20.55...18.88...19.40................23.55...21.83...22.67....................8.25......7.73......5.04..............
11....63.10...65.20...63.43................26.43...29.28...22.16................16.34...15.60...15.82................23.95...21.85...24.63...................-3.62.....-1.53......0.81..............
12....64.49...65.95...66.36................40.49...43.11...45.25................18.01...17.33...17.65................24.49...21.85...25.40.................-18.49...-16.34...-21.94..............
================Daily Net US Demand Model (BCF)================
_Week____Sat____Sun___ Mon___Tue___Wed___ Thr____Fri____Total
11/27/09....62.00....62.32....63.55....63.58....65.50....63.32....64.30....444.58
12/04/09....64.07....63.64....65.71....65.94....64.88....64.12....63.91....452.28
12/11/09....63.87....64.33....65.20....63.97....64.50....70.32....67.45....459.64
12/18/09....64.54....64.01....64.01....64.69....68.37....70.78....69.83....466.24
12/25/09....69.42....69.81....71.10....69.91....68.12....65.50....63.95....477.81
01/01/10....62.89....63.16....66.48....68.62....67.70....65.90....67.81....462.57
01/08/10....71.53....74.17....74.79....73.31....73.76....70.47....70.94....508.97
01/15/10....73.77....73.34....72.30....71.75....70.16....68.37....66.57....496.24
01/22/10....64.47....65.22....66.54....66.04....66.98....66.51....66.12....461.88
01/29/10....65.92....65.24....65.89....68.81....68.04....69.68....71.75....475.33
__________________________Year_Ago__________________________
01/23/09....70.07....68.59....70.07....72.18....71.50....69.30....67.13....488.84
01/30/09....68.25....69.53....69.89....69.26....68.00.... Resource id #49[back] |
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