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First Enercast Financial
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Commentary and Reports for Mar 16, 2010

The Fate of Alberta's Oil and Gas Industry

I knew a change was on the horizon. Even my Canadian readers in Alberta who felt they weren't getting their fair share had to have known the royalty time bomb had to be defused... Full Storypdf

Peak Oil Review

Oil prices spent the week in the vicinity of $82 a barrel. On Friday prices rose briefly to a two-month high of $83.16, then fell back on concerns about US economic growth... Full Storypdf

Our energy supply: some basics

If a person were to listen to Energy Secretary Steven Chu or National Geographic's Aftermath: World Without Oil, one might think that our energy problems are fairly minor and distant... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: The Great Fire Wall of China

The Energy Report Monday March 15, 2010 China president Premier Wen Jiabao The Great Fire Wall of China: Google is 99... Full Story

Rig Count

Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count for Week Ending 3/12/10..... Full Storydoc

The Energy Report: Absolutely Astonishing

Oil prices are on the rise again as the International Energy Agency is the latest forecaster to increase their expectations for China oil demand... Full Story

  • author
  • Richard G. Newell
  • Administrator
  • Energy Information Association
  • www.eia.doe.gov
The U.S. Energy Outlook

Generally assumes current laws and regulations – provisions sunset if specified (e.g., renewable tax credits expire) – excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g... Full Storypdf

Twin Threats to Resource Scarcity: Oil & Water

Many Scarce Resources Have Abundant Substitutes World could learn how to get along without copper... Full Storypdf

The Black Art of Oil Reserves...

As I read the "Peak Oil" blogs and message boards, what strikes me is the huge quantity of experts ABOUT Peak Oil/Hydrocarbons/Oil and Gas Business/All Energy/What We Should Do that don't seem... Full Storypdf

The Myth of Energy Breakthroughs

Renewed belief in the concept of Energy Breakthrough seems resurgent these days, as a versatile scientist now helms the Department of Energy, and famous people such as Bill Gates invoke the need... Full Story

  • author
  • Richard G. Newell
  • Administrator
  • Energy Information Association
  • www.eia.doe.gov
Shale Gas A Game Changer for U.S. and Global Gas Markets?

History of U.S. shale gas production − Began with technical success in Barnett Shale − Has grown to over 10% of U.S. gas production • Role of shale gas in the U.S... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: HOT!HOT!HOT!

HOT! HOT! HOT! Inflation in China may be getting too hot to handle! Don't touch or you could get burned... Full Story

  • author
  • Kate Mackenzie
Will natural gas profit from the death of US coal?

The US natural gas industry, so angsty of late about its profile in Washington as a way of reducing CO2 emissions, might not have so much to worry about... Full Storypdf

Will natural gas profit from the death of US coal? March 10, 2010 10:48am by Kate Mackenzie The US natural g

Commodity traders love patterns, and over time, natural gas has exhibited one of the asset class's most consistent patterns: seasonality... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: The API Catch Up

It looks like the API is playing catch up to the Department of Energy... Full Story

Weekly Energy Perspectives

Natural Gas: The NYMEX prompt-month contract decreased $1.22/MMBtu last week to $4.59/MMBtu on Friday. The 12- month NYMEX strip price was down $0.22/MMBtu to $5.18/MMBtu... Full Storypdf

EIA Discussion for Week Ending March 5th

Projected EIA working storage for the week ending March 5th, 2010: First Enercast Financial is predicting a withdrawal of 116 BCF for this weeks EIA release, bringing total storage to... Full Story

The Energy Report: China Appreciation Day

Oil prices are under a bit of pressure to start the day as attention turns again to the forex markets... Full Story

Why Energy Is the Only Real Currency

When oil crossed $120 a barrel for the first time in May 2008, oil cornucopians knew they were in trouble..... Full Story

The true cost of shale gas production

I try not to get into arguments over other people's religious convictions. Even if you win your point, you make an enemy. That's been a conventional understanding since the Thirty Years War... Full Story

Crude Oil Breaks The Dollar Rule For The Summer High Noon

Crude oil surged to its highest level in almost eight weeks and gasoline also rose to a 17-month high after the U.S. employment declined less than forecast in February... Full Storypdf

Peak Oil Review

1. Prices and Production Oil prices rose steadily last week closing on Friday at $81.50 after touching a high above $82. Prices have yet to regain the 2010 high of $83.95 reached on January 11th... Full Story

The Energy Report: All is well

All is well. One dose of a better than expected jobs report and all our troubles just go away... Full Story

Rig Count

Weekly Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count for Week Ending 3/5/10..... Full Storydoc

The Energy Report : Oil Held hostage Day 353

It is almost been a year since the day the oil market was changed forever... Full Story

Fast Facts

The April contract has expired lower than March in only 4 of the past 19 years. Since the March 2010 natural gas NYMEX contract expired at $4... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: EURO Mania

Who knew Greek austerity would feel so darned good. Oil prices soared on the backs of a surging euro dollar as the market seems to want to put Greece’s problems behind them... Full Story

VCM Weekly Natural Gas Comments for March 1

Nymex NG April 10 - High $5.00 Low $4.74 Open $4.96 Close $4.81 Nymex NG 12 Month Strip - High $5.44 Low $5.27 Open $5.43 Close $5... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: 80 Proof

Oil traders may need a stiff drink after the wild end to yesterday’s trading session. Something strong like 80 proof or at the very least, proof that oil can close above 80... Full Story

Weekly Advisor

The spring tends to be a timeframe in which natural gas prices rally. The rally is usually prompted by the uncertainties of summer weather, tropical storms, and summer storage injections... Full Storypdf

EIA Discussion for Week Ending February 26th

Projected EIA working storage for the week ending February 26th, 2010: First Enercast Financial is predicting a withdrawal of 129 BCF for this weeks EIA release, bringing total storage... Full Story

The Energy Report: Trying to Keep Positive

You've got to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative and latch on to the affirmative, don't mess with Mister In-Between. Oil tried to rally. It really did... Full Story

Weekly Energy Perspectives

Natural Gas: The NYMEX prompt-month contract increased $0.77/MMBtu last week to $5.81/MMBtu on Friday. The 12- month NYMEX strip price was down $0.09/MMBtu to $5.40/MMBtu... Full Storypdf

Why Natural Gas Vehicles Won't Decrease Oil Dependence

Natural gas is the fossil fuel du jour. At Davos, BP (BP) CEO, Tony Hayward, described unconventional natural gas as a 'complete game changer'. The rest of the panel agreed... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: In like a lion and out like a lamb?

In like a lion and out like a lamb? Ok, I know it is a tired cliché about the month of March but probably apropos for the energy and stock markets. Last week’s blistering hot GDP at 5... Full Story

Rig Count

Weekly Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count for Week Ending 2/26/10..... Full Storydoc

The Disappearance of the Natural Gas Glut

Lost amongst all the noise generated from the Federal Reserve’s discount rate hike and the ongoing saga in Greece, is the disappearance of last fall’s large overhang of natural gas... Full Story

The Energy Report: Bens Magic

Is Ben Bernanke losing his influence over the Energy Market? Oh sure bleak Ben told the market yesterday that interest rates would stay low for infinity and that the economy was not ready for... Full Story

A Short Term Outlook For Gas Prices: Russia Calls The Shots (Again)

Gas prices have held up well, in part on the prolonged cold spell... Full Story

The Energy Report: I Have Confidence

I have confidence in sunshine, I have confidence in rain, I have confidence that spring will come again. But confidence in the economy may knock the confidence out of me... Full Story

EIA Discussion for Week Ending February 19th

Projected EIA working storage for the week ending February 19th, 2010: First Enercast Financial is predicting a withdrawal of 171 BCF for this weeks EIA release, bringing total storage... Full Story

The Energy Report: Iran Back Down?

Oil is down overnight in part because it is possible that Iran is backing down on their nuclear ambitions... Full Story

Weekly Natural Gas Technical Notes

- Nymex NG April 10 - High $5.53 Low $5.01 Open $5.43 Close $5.06 - Nymex NG 12 Month Strip - High $5.95 Low $5.46 Open $5.89 Close $5... Full Storypdf

Weekly Energy Perspectives

Natural Gas: The NYMEX prompt-month contract decreased $0.42/MMBtu last week to $5.04/MMBtu on Friday. The 12- month NYMEX strip price was down $0.39/MMBtu to $5.495/MMBtu... Full Storypdf

Wx Risk Weather Forecast for 2/22

THE BOTTOM LINE: MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT... STRONG ARCTIC PATTERN RETURNS FOR LAST WEEK OF FEB INTO EARLY MARCH..... Full Storypdf

Peak Oil Review

1. Prices and Production Oil prices have moved up steadily for two weeks, rising by almost $10 a barrel, and now are back in the vicinity of $80... Full Story

  • author
  • Kurt Cobb
  • Freelance Writer
  • Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
  • www.aspo-usa.com
Peak Demand: The Cornucopians Reach for a Fig Leaf

The world's oil supply optimists must feel as if they are in that dream that so many of us have had about arriving at work in our underwear... Full Story

Wx Risk Weather Forecast for 2/19

THE BOTTOM LINE: MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT... STRONG ARCTIC PATTERN RETURNS FOR LAST WEEK OF FEB INTO EARLY MARCH..... Full Storypdf

Rig Count

Weekly Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count for Week Ending 2/19/10..... Full Storydoc

The Energy Report: Don’t discount the impact of the discount rate increase

Don’t discount the impact of the discount rate increase. The longest journey from the removal of extraordinary stimulus starts with the first step and that step has now been taken... Full Story

Wx Risk Weather Forecast for 2/18

THE BOTTOM LINE: MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT... STRONG COLD PATTERN RETURNS FOR LAST WEEK OF FEB INTO EARLY MARCH..... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: Have It Your Way

Have it your way, have it your way. The bulls have it their way yet beware because today is a brand new day... Full Story

Wx Risk Weather Forecast for 2/17

THE BOTTOM LINE: GFS MODEL USELESS... EUROPEAN MODELS MUCH BETTER ... STRONG COLD PATTERN HOLD EAST OF INTO MARCH..... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: Confidence Game

The petroleum complex soared for a lot of reasons but confidence may be the best reason. Oil and its price are not just a reflection of supply and demand but also a reflection of confidence... Full Story

Offshore Oil The Warren Buffett Way

Commodities, particularly crude, were trending down last week after China's Central Bank raised bank reserve requirements boosting the US dollar against other major currencies... Full Storypdf

Peak Oil Review

1. Prices and Production Oil prices rose modestly last week on conflicting news... Full Story

Wx Risk Weather Forecast for 2/16

THE BOTTOM LINE: GFS MODEL USELESS... EUROPEAN MODELS MUCH BETTER ..... Full Storypdf

The Energy Report: I have a Yen for oil

Say goodbye to the Euro and hello to the Japanese yen... Full Story

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